Orange’s satellite move with AST SpaceMobile
Orange (ENXTPA:ORA) is back in focus after signing a Letter of Intent with AST SpaceMobile alongside Deutsche Telekom, Telefónica and Vodafone to explore a joint bid for Mobile Satellite Services spectrum in Europe.
The potential spectrum bid ties Orange more closely to space based cellular broadband, with AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird satellites and European ground infrastructure targeting coverage for more than 500 million mobile subscribers across the region.
Orange’s latest move into space based connectivity lands as the share price edges up 1.9% over the past day, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 6.4% and 5 year total shareholder return of about 2x suggest longer term holders have seen steadier momentum than recent quarterly share price trading implies.
Scan beyond Orange and size up other telecoms with space-connectivity potential using our hand-picked 42 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks
Orange now has a solid telecom base and a fresh satellite angle after the AST SpaceMobile move. The key question is whether the current share price still reflects that mix fairly.
Most Popular Narrative: 25% Undervalued
Orange last closed at €14.37, while the most followed valuation story pins fair value around €19.04, which implies a sizeable gap that the market has not closed yet. That view leans heavily on how fiber, Middle East and Africa operations, and cost programs reshape the earnings mix over time.
Sustained double digit revenue growth in Middle East and Africa for 10 consecutive quarters, combined with an ambition for double digit EBITDAaL growth in 2025, points to a growing contribution from these countries to group revenues and earnings.
Ongoing cost efficiency programmes, including procurement, AI and operational initiatives, are already reflected in 3.7% EBITDAaL growth and a 0.7 point margin rate improvement, which can support net margins if executed consistently.
See why 14 investors see Orange as 25% undervalued.
That narrative uses a discount rate of 7.15% and arrives at a fair value estimate of €19.04 for Orange, versus today’s market value of around €38.2b and a share price that is about 24.6% below that reference point. It ties together analyst assumptions on revenue growth, margins and earnings through to 2029, then discounts those cash flows back to today and checks whether the implied future P/E of 18.5x on projected earnings feels reasonable against telecom peers.
For context, analysts that inform this storyline are broadly aligned that the current €14.37 level is below where their models land, with the consensus target around €19 per share and a range that runs from €15.50 to €21.80. They factor in group revenue of about €49.9b and earnings of €3.4b by 2029, while accepting that forecasts carry uncertainty and that execution on French market consolidation, Orange Business and capital intensity will influence how closely reality tracks those scenarios.
Result: Fair Value of €19.04 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the story can unravel if French consolidation leads to higher leverage than investors accept, or if Orange Business drags on group profitability longer than analysts expect.
Find out about the key risks to this Orange narrative.
Next Steps
If this mix of optimism and worry around Orange feels familiar, do not remain undecided. Consider those conflicting signals in light of the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Orange?
If Orange has sharpened your thinking, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not chasing opportunities after they have moved.
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