The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cinda Securities released a research report saying that the demand side has entered a relatively stable state, pays attention to gold price trends, and selects individual stocks according to the operating stage. The bank believes that in recent years, China's gold category has experienced a wave of consumer gold hoarding (increased purchases) and gold exchange (trade-in), and overall demand may have stabilized. Subsequent investment opportunities need to pay attention to the gold price trend on the one hand. If the trend increase is resumed, the overall beta of the sector is expected to rise again, and on the other hand, individual stocks should be selected according to the operating stage.
Cinda Securities's main views are as follows:
An empirical study on the correlation between gold prices and individual gold and jewellery stock prices
The bank conducts research on the correlation between gold price trends and individual stock prices, and analyzes and interprets them based on industry, company fundamentals, and financial data. (1) Conclusion 1: The company's operating performance has always been the ballast stone of stock price performance: the core influencing factors of individual stock prices in the sector during the rapid expansion period and contraction adjustment period are their own operating conditions, such as Chow Taifu, whose channel contracted in 2024, and Chaohongji, which expanded in 2020-2024. The correlation between individual stock prices and gold prices during the stable development period will be more obvious, such as Lao Fengxiang in 2024 and before, Caibai shares since listing. (2) Conclusion 2: The impact of strong gold price trends on individual stock prices is more obvious: Judging from the sample review situation, the strong correlation between gold price trends and individual stock prices does not always exist, but rather shows obvious phased distribution characteristics. Under the strong trend of gold prices for several months or more, the positive correlation between the two will be more obvious (that is, the same rise/fall). However, it should be noted that the price of gold rose sharply to a new high in 2025Q4-2026Q1. Although the price of gold showed a strong trend, individual stock prices were not synchronized. The bank believes that the core reason is that consumers are wait-and-see about the excessive price of gold, which suppresses sales.
Analysis of the correlation between the price of gold and the gross profit of individual gold and jewellery stocks
In order to better support investment decisions based on a single element of gold price, this section of the bank excluded factors of the comprehensive business situation of the industry and individual stocks, and only analyzed the correlation with gold prices for financial data (represented by gross profit). Judging from the results, the impact of gold prices on the gross profit of gold and jewelry companies is widespread, and during the upward phase of gold prices with a strong trend, there is a certain positive correlation between financial data represented by gross profit amount for most individual stocks and gold prices. In terms of correlation, the strongest companies are Lao Fengxiang and Caibai shares, followed by Lukfook Group and Zhou Dasheng, followed by Chao Hongji and Zhou Daifu. From the perspective of the business model, the price of gold has multiple effects on gross profit. (1) Sales climate: Chinese consumers have a clear “buy rise, not buy down” mentality in the face of gold products; (2) Product structure: Chinese consumers prefer to buy investment gold products and one-price gold products during the rapid rise in gold prices, and in the process of a steady rise in gold prices, the product structure is relatively balanced; (3) Inventory value: The bank believes that this may be the core explanation of the correlation between gold prices and gross profit, that is, companies generally have a preparation cycle and exposure to gold preparation (when leasing) The price of gold during the inventory turnover period The rise favors an increase in gross sales margin and creates direct positive support for gross profit growth.
Impact attribution
The bank believes that the primary factor that determines the correlation between gold price trends and individual stock financial data performance is the stocking mechanism. The higher the gold exposure ratio (that is, the hedging portion ratio), the stronger the correlation; the second is the product structure. The higher the proportion of products priced by grams, the stronger the correlation between the two, because terminal sales of products denominated in grams are usually priced according to the gold price of the day and can be reflected immediately.
Core findings
If gold price trends are included in investment considerations in the gold and jewelry sector, the prerequisite is to consider the individual stock operation stage and market boom beta. When the industry boom and channel scale are relatively stable, starting from the extent of individual stock benefits, Lao Fengxiang and Caibai shares are the first tier, Lukfook Group and Zhou Dasheng are the second tier, and Chao Hongji and Chow Tai Fu are the third tier. Furthermore, the bank believes that individual stocks not included in the empirical analysis, such as Laoshujin, Zhou Liufu, and Zhou Shengsheng, etc. are also expected to enjoy varying degrees of benefit under the upward trend in gold prices based on their own business characteristics and overall sentiment beta support. In addition, the bank considered the characteristics of listed companies in the gold and jewelry industry that were mainly gold in their inventory, calculated each company's non-standardized net asset level that can flow quickly, and calculated the ratio of this amount to the total market capitalization. Lao Fengxiang, Lukfook Group, and Zhou Liufu all accounted for a high proportion of the total market value, and the asset value was outstanding.
Risk factors: Gold prices fluctuate greatly, industry competition intensifies, channel expansion falls short of expectations, new product promotion falls short of expectations, policy-related risks, errors in statistical estimates, and errors in profit forecasts.