Ponsse Oyj (HEL:PON1V) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €160m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 48%, coming in at just €0.16 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
After the latest results, the two analysts covering Ponsse Oyj are now predicting revenues of €751.3m in 2027. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 50% to €1.25. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €755.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.28 in 2027. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Ponsse Oyj
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €22.30, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Ponsse Oyj'shistorical trends, as the 2.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 is roughly in line with the 2.4% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 6.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that Ponsse Oyj is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €22.30, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2028, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Ponsse Oyj that we have uncovered.
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