The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that the US imposed new sanctions on 17 ships transporting Iranian oil, the Houthis warned of attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, and Hurricane Isaias suspended local crude oil production of about 1.46 million b/d. As of October 14, the WTI settlement price was 95.09 US dollars/barrel, up 7.71% from the low on October 7. Oil prices may have maintained a fluctuating trend until the geographical signal is clear. High production and abundant inventories in the US suppress gas prices. Europe is supported by repeated Middle Eastern geopolitics and historically low inventories. The EU gas storage capacity ratio is 71.55%, 11.04 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The average price difference between the two places reached 22.46 US dollars/million British pound, up 176.94% year on year. In October, European inventory replenishment pressure and geographical risk will still dominate the market.
CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:
Industry Overview
Judging from the performance of various transportation sub-sectors compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the overall transportation sector declined this week (October 12 to October 16). The integrated logistics sector fell 1.77% this week, with the raw materials supply chain services sector falling 2.41%.
Logistics supply chain: WTI crude oil prices rebounded and global natural gas continued to divide between the US and Europe
WTI crude oil prices rebounded upward
The US has imposed new sanctions on 17 ships transporting Iranian oil products. The Pentagon has instructed the Central Command to complete preparations for combat against Iraq, and the Houthis warned that Saudi Aramco facilities will be targeted. Category 3 Hurricane Isaias landed on the US Gulf coast, and oil producers suspended about 1.46 million b/d of crude oil production, accounting for 72% of the region's total production. The average WTI price rose 3.36% month-on-month during the week. As of the 14th, the settlement price was 95.09 US dollars/barrel, up 7.71% from the low on October 7. Until there is no clear signal of geographical easing or upgrading, market wait-and-see sentiment will continue to heat up, and oil prices may maintain a volatile trend.
Global natural gas continues the division between the US and Europe
High production and abundant inventories in the US suppress prices, and Europe is supported by repeated Middle Eastern geopolitics and historically low inventories. In September, the average daily output of the 48 states in the US was about 113.3 billion cubic feet, an increase of 1.9% over the previous month; the EU gas storage capacity ratio was 71.55%, 11.04 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The average price difference between Port Henry and TTF reached 22.46 US dollars/million British pound in the same month, up 176.94% year on year. European TTF once rose to 27 US dollars/million baht in the middle of the month. Looking ahead to October, Europe's gas storage rate may reach only 75% to 80% before winter, and the evolution of replenishment pressure and geographical risk will still dominate the market trend.
risk analysis
Global trade risks as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to escalate; global macroeconomic recovery falls short of expectations; logistics prices are subject to regulatory changes; and fuel costs have risen sharply.