The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that overall demand in the travel chain is lackluster, and internal sector segmentation is remarkable; demand resilience in the education sector is outstanding, the supply pattern continues to improve, and prosperity remains high. Considering that the current market style favors a balanced allocation, it is recommended to focus on the booming education circuit and lay out high-quality undervalued leaders with management structure optimization, business incremental support, and dividend attributes.
Orient Securities's main views are as follows:
Fourth quarter outlook: focus on the boom in education and the profitability of leading racetrack segments
Consumer travel tracking: Driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival misalignment, the zero growth rate in September was accelerated month-on-month, +1.1% in September 2026, down from +0.4% in August, and service consumption was relatively superior; according to Civil Aviation Administration data, passenger traffic volume in August was 787.30 million, +4.5% year-on-year; DAST high-frequency data showed that passenger traffic in August increased steadily compared to the same period last year, and overall ticket price elasticity increased; ticket prices increased year-on-year in the second half of the month, but the overall ticket price level declined slightly in the second half of the month.
Sector review: September saw the highest increase in theme concepts. In September 2026, the CITIC consumer services sector fell 2.5%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 3.3 pct. As of September 2026, education stocks led the way, such as Doushen Education, Kode Education, and Gaotu Insurance, which are expected to be driven by AI concepts; some individual catering and travel stocks also performed well, such as Little Vegetable Garden (improved operating data), Dalian Shengya (ice and snow concept), and Guilin Tourism, which had the highest gains.
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① Hotels: RevPAR continued to increase year-on-year in September, and the supply of new additions continued to slow down. According to Hotel Home data, the hotel industry's RevPAR data for August increased year-on-year (RevPAR in weeks 31-35, +0.8%/+2.2%/+2.1%/+7.7%/+0.5%, respectively). Housing prices picked up further after entering September, and RevPAR increased year-on-year. At the end of September, the growth rate of hotel room supply across the country had dropped to about 5%.
① Tax exemption: The amount of tax exemptions on the outlying islands increased by 1.9% in August. According to Haikou Customs data, duty-free shopping amount/number of shoppers/number of shoppers on the outlying islands increased by 17.9%/7.0%/12.0% from January to July 2026. In August 2026, the amount of duty-free shopping on the outlying islands also increased by 1.9%. Among them, the number of duty-free shoppers/per capita consumption on the outlying islands increased by 0.8%/1.1%, respectively, continuing the July growth trend (July duty-free shopping amount/shoppers/per capita consumption ratio +7.4%/6.8%/0.6%).
② Chain food and tea chain: Differentiation of brand management data. In September, due to the high takeout base and consumer spending power restrictions, most restaurant brands were under pressure to operate in the same store or single store; Guming, Xiao Caiyuan, Haidilao, and Taier showed relative business resilience.
③ Scenic area: The passenger volume of Yangtze River Three Gorges Cruise (inter-provincial cruises) increased 13% in September, mainly for middle-aged and elderly people; the Three Gorges Cruise interprovincial cruise passenger volume in September was 0.38 million, an increase of 46.2%, accounting for about 3.2% of the market.
Risk warning: Consumer spending intentions continue to weaken, high oil prices suppress travel, implementation of holiday policies falling short of expectations, changes in industry regulatory policies, falling short of expectations, etc.