The Zhitong Finance App learned that Citi released a research report saying that despite the recovery in crude oil flow in the Arabian Gulf, short-term oil market risks are still trending upward. Freight charges are misaligned due to poor logistics efficiency, which has prevented delivery and supply from being fully normalized, and geopolitical risks may resurface before and after the midterm elections in the Knesset and the US.
The normalization of crude oil exports in the Arabian Gulf is mainly reflected in quantity rather than logistics. Unprecedentedly inefficient shipping has kept the cost of onshore crude oil high. The freight rate for very large oil tankers (VLCC) from the Arabian Gulf to China is recently approaching 250 US dollars per ton, about 35 US dollars per barrel, which is more than 20 times higher than the average of the past ten years; OilX data shows that Middle East crude oil exports are still more than 4 million barrels per day lower than the same period last year, and in September, more than 1 million barrels of Arabian Gulf crude oil exports were completed by ship-to-ship (STS) every day. Affected by sanctions, idleness and war damage, effective capacity is far below nominal capacity. Of the world's more than 930 VLCCs, only about 784 are in service.
The bank also said that according to the US-Russia diesel agreement, the US government announced the suspension of sanctions on Russian diesel trade for six months. Russia promised to export 300,000 tons to the US in October, 500,000 tons in November, and increase to about 1 million tons thereafter. Russian diesel exports are expected to rise back to about 500,000 barrels per day, or ease the pressure on global gas and oil cracking price differences, but high freight rates and refinery restrictions may slow the transmission of additional supply to lower prices for onshore products.
In terms of customer meetings, the market generally expects that the US and Iran will be tense or continue to be in a state of prolonged and low intensity, and that the oil market may repeatedly but gradually strengthen rather than a sharp geographical premium; the long-term curve belief is weak. If regional tension extends beyond 2026 or supports forward oil prices, diplomatic breakthroughs can also quickly erase the long-term geographical premium.