According to Woofun AI, James Thorne (James Thorne), the chief market strategist at Canadian wealth management company Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, recently sent a strong bullish signal and anticipated an “unprecedented rise” on October 15 (which was then not fulfilled), although he believes that Bitcoin's “supercycle” is unlikely to occur in the short term.
This judgment directly challenges traditional market consensus. Thorne believes that the four-year “halving” cycle theory that dominated Bitcoin price fluctuations in the past has completely failed, and that the current market structure has been fundamentally reshaped due to regulation and technological innovation, making this round of the market unique characteristics that distinguish it from previous cycles.
Although the price of Bitcoin was still in the low range of $81,671.00 to $82,799.00 on October 23, 2026 at 1:47 a.m. EST, with only a slight recovery from the previous day's close, this did not shake Thorne's confidence. He is convinced that changes in macro fundamentals have paved the way for a long-term bull market.
The core logic underpinning Thorne's optimistic expectations is that the channel for traditional financial capital to enter the crypto sector has been completely cleared. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, since regulators approved the Bitcoin Spot ETF on January 10, 2024, Wall Street funds have been able to participate in BTC transactions without barriers. As of early October, such funds have accumulated a net inflow of $57.8 billion.
Furthermore, the US GENIUS Act on stablecoins and the intensification of asset tokenization trends are seen as key catalysts. Asset tokenization is expected to release a large amount of locked capital in the traditional financial system by recording ownership of assets such as US Treasury bonds on the blockchain; the improvement of stablecoin regulations has lowered the threshold for compliant capital to enter the blockchain field. Judging from market data, as of the above time, the total market value of Bitcoin reached 1.64 trillion US dollars. The price fluctuation range for the day was $80,989.00 to $82,799.00. The price fluctuation range for the past 52 weeks was $57,945.16 to $116,041.09, with a trading volume of 34 billion dollars. Citing his trading experience during the commodity market super cycle in the early 2000s, Thorne emphasized that the current structural changes in the cryptocurrency market have made historical rules no longer applicable. This view is quite persuasive in the context of the continuous inflow of institutional capital.
However, an in-depth analysis of the historical trajectory of the “supercycle” concept reveals that it is often accompanied by the end of irrational market prosperity or the initial illusion of a new bull market, and there are very few fixed definitions. In almost every cryptocurrency market cycle, experts make similar assumptions, but most are ultimately falsified. For example, in 2021, cryptocurrency fund manager Su Zhu (Su Zhu) predicted that cryptocurrencies would continue to rise without a new long-term bear market, but in May 2022, he had to dismiss this view. Similarly, in the most recent market cycle centered around the 2024 'halving' event, predictions about the supercycle failed, partly because Bitcoin broke through its previous all-time high (ATH) for the first time before the 'halving', causing traditional analytical frameworks based on the halving cycle to fail. These historical examples show that the 'supercycle' is more of a narrative tool than a rigorous economic forecasting model.
Although huge net inflows of ETFs and improvements in the regulatory environment do provide solid fundamental support for BTC, equating short-term capital inflows directly with a long-term bear-free market, ignoring changes in cyclicality and risk appetite within the market.
It is worth noting that after experiencing significant fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin, its scarcity is indeed increasing, but this does not mean that the price will rise unilaterally without experiencing a pullback.
For investors, regardless of whether the “supercycle” narrative holds true or not, a rational asset allocation strategy is the key to dealing with uncertainty. As an asset with institutional support, Bitcoin's price fluctuations still follow the rules of the market, and the emergence of a bear market is a probabilistic event rather than an exception. The best coping strategy is not to blindly chase higher or take the predictions of a single expert lightly, but rather to gradually buy small amounts to ensure that the BTC holding ratio does not disrupt the overall diversified structure of the investment portfolio, while strictly controlling positions within one's ability to withstand losses. Even if the market enters a bear market, you should maintain the same or slightly higher buying power as during the bull market, and stick to a long-term perspective of at least five years.
This disciplined investment strategy can effectively smooth out the risks caused by cyclical fluctuations. Regardless of whether there is a so-called supercycle or not, investors can benefit from the long-term trend of increasing Bitcoin scarcity.