According to Woofun AI, the US Bitcoin Spot ETF experienced a single-day net outflow of $6354.9 million on October 22. This divestment occurred before the BTC price fell to the usual tipping point that triggered a massive sell-off.
This “run before falling” capital trend has broken the previous three-day trend of inflows, turning the net capital flow since October into a net outflow of approximately US$174.5 million. Notably, just the day before, these ETFs also attracted $528.4 million in capital inflows, while October 19 recorded the highest single-day inflow of $526.6 million since September 22. The size of the October 22 outflow was the largest single-day divestment since June 25, marking a reversal in market sentiment before prices deteriorated significantly.
The underlying reason lies in investors' sensitivity to relatively high prices. Cryptocurrency market maker DWF Labs has been tracking Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows since January 2024, and its research has established a key threshold: when the price of BTC falls about 7% from its 20-day high, sell-off behavior will increase significantly. The report shows that ETF investors can usually endure a slight decline, but once the decline is close to 7%, the average daily capital flow will reverse from a net inflow of about $74 million to a net outflow of $72 million. Of the 24 historical scenarios studied by DWF, 19 experienced deteriorating cash flow conditions.
Data compiled by Woofun AI showed that based on Binance's daily closing price, the October 22 BTC price fell about 5.9% from the high of $86,530 set on October 4, which meant that the 7% tipping point was around $80,470. Currently, the BTC transaction price is near this level. The closing price on October 22 was $81,416.09, down 3.18% from the previous day, and fell 3.41% to $81,297 within 24 hours.
The more critical variable is the high synchronicity of ETF capital flows with price changes. DWF found that in 7 of the 8 price peak days, the flow of money remained positive. The October data confirms this pattern: on October 21, when the price of BTC rose, funds flowed in, and when the price fell, funds immediately flowed out. Over the past week, the BTC price rose from $82,245.93 on October 15 to $84,093.42 on October 21, but was held back near $85,000. The 7% tipping point may be adjusted dynamically over time. Once the high on October 4 moves out of the statistical range on the 20th, the next reference point will be the closing price of $85,766.87 on October 5, which will reduce the threshold that triggered the sell-off to around $79,760, unless the BTC price rises back above $85,766.87 first.
However, DWF data also shows that such sell-offs tend to gradually weaken; after a 7% decline in the past, capital flow is often close to zero next week, and may turn positive in another week. Although the sample showed clear patterns, the agency stated that this was not sufficient to constitute an absolute statistical proof. The closing price over the next few days will determine whether ETF capital outflows will increase further if the BTC price falls below the critical line.