According to Woofun AI, although signs of institutional capital return are showing, the short-term inflow scale is not enough to establish a trend reversal, and the crypto market is entering a two-week window of high volatility. HTX Research researcher Chloe pointed out that from October 19 to 21, the cumulative net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs was about US$1,075 million. Although this data showed a recovery in buying, the market rebound was still suppressed by interest rate expectations against the backdrop of intensive macroeconomic data releases.
For the rest of the trading day of the week, the market focus was on the initial US PMI announced at 9:45 on October 23, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations released at 22:00. If economic activity remains strong and price pressure rises, the rebound momentum will be limited.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the next wave is expected to expand significantly. Key points include the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision at 02:00 on October 29 and the 02:30 press conference. The preliminary US GDP value for the third quarter and September PCE data will also be announced at 20:30 on the same day. Currently, the market tends to maintain interest rates in October and raise interest rates again in December. Simply suspending interest rate hikes may not necessarily be beneficial; the direction depends on subsequent austerity guidelines.
Notably, the PCE announced the interest rate results later, and the early morning rise may have been reversed by inflation data that night. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting on the 29th to 30th constituted an external variable. If the policy bias pushes the yen to appreciate rapidly, the settlement of arbitrage transactions may increase pressure on risky assets; the reaction of technology stocks to profits and capital expenditure during the US stock earnings season will also be transmitted to risk appetite in the crypto market.
In the next two weeks, the market is more likely to experience shock recovery, incident shocks, and repricing. The overall rise is not a benchmark scenario. If the Federal Reserve weakens subsequent interest rate hikes, the core PCE falls short of expectations, and ETF net inflows continue, BTC will be more in a position to break through this week's highs and drive ETH and SOL to make up; conversely, if hawkish guidance, inflation exceeds expectations, or the yen appreciates rapidly, the market may test the recent low again, and volatile altcoins will be more vulnerable. This is a typical example of the market's rebalancing of liquidity expectations following heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.