Waste Connections delivered Q3 results that exceeded Wall Street’s revenue and non-GAAP profit expectations, with management highlighting the benefits of core pricing, solid waste margin expansion, and improved landfill volumes as key factors. CEO Ronald Mittelstaedt credited “outsized underlying margin expansion on record safety performance” and noted a rebound in special waste and construction debris volumes. The company also pointed to continued strength in energy-related waste and recycled commodities, with higher values for recycled cardboard and renewable natural gas generation contributing to the quarter’s performance.
Is now the time to buy WCN? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Waste Connections (WCN) Q3 2026 highlights:
- Revenue: $2.64 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.61 billion (7.3% year-on-year growth, 1.2% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.58 vs analyst estimates of $1.52 (3.9% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $895.8 million vs analyst estimates of $886 million (34% margin, 1.1% beat)
- The company slightly lifted its revenue guidance for the full year to $10.09 billion at the midpoint from $10.04 billion
- Operating Margin: 20.5%, up from 17.9% in the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $46.27 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management’s commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls is the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our top 5 analyst questions from Waste Connections’s Q3 earnings call
- Kevin Chiang (CIBC): Asked about the trajectory of free cash flow conversion into 2027. CFO Mary Anne Whitney explained that declining remediation and RNG spending should close the gap toward a 48-50% conversion rate, but more detail will come in February.
- Noah Kaye (Oppenheimer): Inquired about margin expansion drivers for 2027, specifically the impact of AI initiatives. CEO Ronald Mittelstaedt clarified that the largest AI-related margin benefits would materialize in 2028 and beyond, with minimal impact in 2027.
- Adam Bubes (Goldman Sachs): Asked about the outlook for M&A activity and whether the slower pace in 2026 signaled a strategic shift. Mittelstaedt stressed that M&A remains opportunistic, with $200 million now considered a low watermark for annual acquired revenue.
- Toni Kaplan (Morgan Stanley): Sought clarity on volume trends in special waste and construction debris. Management emphasized a broad-based recovery across geographies, with volume growth tied to infrastructure, remediation, and data center projects.
- Shlomo Rosenbaum (Stifel): Pressed on the potential for customer pricing pushback due to higher diesel costs. Whitney noted the use of selective price increases and retention improvements to manage customer sensitivity and offset rising costs.
Catalysts in upcoming quarters
In the coming quarters, our analysts will be watching (1) the pace of margin improvement as the company digests higher fuel expenses and integrates recent acquisitions, (2) progress on sustainability-related projects—especially the ramp-up of new RNG facilities and their impact on recurring revenue, and (3) continued discipline and scale in M&A activity. The ability to maintain core pricing gains and manage cost inflation will also be key signposts for long-term value creation.
Waste Connections currently trades at $184.88, up from $168.28 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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