The Zhitong Finance App learned that, according to a survey of manufacturers by the Chenglian Branch in early October, most leading manufacturers were cautious about the sales pace in the fourth quarter. Most car companies achieved less than 60% of their annual targets in the first three quarters. There is still plenty of room for impulse in the fourth quarter, but “reverse internal sales” and terminal profit pressure limited the space for price in exchange for volume. Overall, the inventory strategies of various manufacturers were steady in October. Based on the weekly trend analysis, the passenger car retail market size in the narrow sense of October was about 1.6 million units, down 1.1% from the previous month and 28.9% from the previous year. By energy type, new energy is supported by early orders. It is expected to reach about 1.07 million vehicles. The retail penetration rate is about 66.9%, which is a slight drop from the high point at the end of the September quarter, in line with regular seasonal trends.
Weekly trends estimate that the first week of October is the National Day holiday. Various manufacturers introduced Golden Week promotion policies, and terminal passenger flow rebounded in stages, mainly collecting orders, with relatively few deliveries, and an average daily retail sale of 32,000 vehicles; in the second week, the cumulative orders during the National Day resumed, and the average daily retail sales rose sharply to about 58,000 units; in the third week, with the steady delivery of new cars launched in the 3rd quarter, the average daily retail sales fell back to around 47,000 vehicles; in the fourth week, with stable delivery of new cars launched in the 3rd quarter, the market was warm and warm Continued. Expected to increase slightly from the third week, average daily retail sales can reach Around 49,000 units; in the fifth week, manufacturers gathered momentum at the end of the month and built up energy for the fourth quarter, and the average daily retail sales are expected to be 79,000 vehicles. Overall, retail sales for the whole month are expected to be 1.6 million vehicles, down 1.1% from the previous month, down 28.9% year on year, and the decline was further expanded from September.
The peak season for the car market in October is not strong
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, total retail sales of social consumer goods increased 1.1% year on year from January to September 2026. Among them, retail sales of automobiles fell 14.9% year on year, and automobile consumption declined deeply. Total retail sales of consumer goods increased 1.1% year on year in September. Among them, retail sales of automobiles fell 21.2% year on year, and the decline continued to expand. In October, the car market entered the traditional “Silver Ten” peak sales season. The effect of attracting customers during the National Day holiday was combined with trade-in subsidies to jointly promote the phased release of consumer demand at the beginning of the month, but the decline in consumer demand at the beginning of the month was rapid, and consumer demand was still relatively weak. The fuel vehicle market is still being dragged down by fuel prices, with only slight seasonal improvements during the National Day holiday and terminal promotions; demand for new energy sources is relatively stable, and many new models are still to be launched before the end of the year, but the cycle from debut, blind order, and pre-sale to official launch and delivery is lengthening, and the waiting time for users of popular models has increased. New energy sales growth has entered the platform period, but the penetration rate will still be high.
In summary, it is initially estimated that the total market for passenger cars in the narrow sense of the term this month is about 1.6 million units, of which 1.07 million new energy can be retailed, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 66.9%.