The Morning Bull - US Market Morning Update Friday, Oct, 23 2026
US stocks are set for a mildly positive open, with the mood shaped mainly by fresh evidence of a still firm labor market. Softer volatility in VIX futures and steady S&P 500 contracts point to cautiously constructive risk appetite.
The key signal is weekly jobless claims at 194,000 for the period ending October 17, the lowest since July. That level keeps pressure on the idea of a resilient jobs backdrop, which matters directly for the Federal Reserve outlook and equity risk appetite.
A labor market that is not cracking makes it harder for borrowing costs to ease quickly. At the same time, it supports income and spending that feed corporate revenues. Rate sensitive areas depend on how this balance evolves, especially with mortgage rates only just ticking lower after nine weeks of increases.
The open question is whether today’s US PMI and Michigan sentiment readings confirm that resilience or point to demand cooling ahead. If growth signals stay firm, investors have to decide whether stronger activity justifies higher for longer policy or keeps the soft landing story intact.
Stocks to Watch Before the Opening Bell
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
The proposed merger between Johnson & Johnson's orthopedics business and Smith & Nephew has collapsed after a dispute over who would run the combined group. Smith & Nephew pushed to keep its current CEO Deepak Nath, while Johnson & Johnson wanted former CEO Namal Nawana. Investors now watch whether J&J pursues other options for its orthopedics unit.
NextEra Energy (NEE)
NextEra Energy is adding scale in renewables, with its development arm booking 3.7 gigawatts of new wind, solar and storage projects this quarter. The group has already secured more than two thirds of its multi year targets and recontracted nearly 1,400 megawatts at premium pricing. Data center related hubs that earn fees without capital risk are another key theme to track.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals reported early Phase 1b data for brezosiran in Huntington's disease showing dose dependent cuts in mutant huntingtin protein along with encouraging safety. The effect in cerebrospinal fluid appears durable, which supports a possible twice yearly regimen. A placebo controlled pivotal study is planned for 2027 once regulators sign off on the trial design.
Top Movers
- Spotify Technology (SPOT) jumped 11.10% after strong Q3 subscriber gains, margin improvement, and upbeat AI focused revenue guidance.
- Waste Connections (WCN) surged 9.86% on a Q3 beat, higher 2026 outlook, a 10% dividend increase, and fresh analyst upgrades.
- Roper Technologies (ROP) advanced 9.73% after a Q3 earnings beat, raised full year guidance, and stronger AI driven software momentum.
Top Losers
- Moderna (MRNA) declined 17.57% after leaked melanoma vaccine data fell short of very high investor expectations.
- MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI) declined 15.87%.
- Entegris (ENTG) declined 13.12%.
On The Radar
US trading over the next few sessions is focused on whether strong earnings from tech and consumer heavyweights sit comfortably alongside firm growth and inflation data as the Fed decision approaches.
- S&P Global US PMIs Fri 23 Oct. The prior composite reading was 58.4 with forecasts around 57.6. A print well above that range would underline solid activity and could keep Treasury yields and borrowing costs under upward pressure.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Fri 23 Oct. Confidence last sat at 48.1 and economists look for 46.3. A reading clearly above that level would signal consumers absorbing higher mortgage rates better than expected, which matters for retailers and lenders.
- American Express (AXP) Q3 results Fri 23 Oct. Card spending trends and guidance on customer delinquencies matter most because they speak directly to discretionary demand and credit quality for US households heading into the holiday period.
- Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 results Wed 28 Oct. Investors will focus on cloud revenue and AI related commentary because those lines shape expectations for broader large cap tech earnings and appetite for high growth software stocks.
- US Q3 GDP and PCE inflation Thu 29 Oct. GDP is expected around 3% after 2.2% last quarter and core PCE is forecast at 0.3% month on month. A combination of firm growth and hotter prices would complicate the Fed rate outlook next week.
Sector & Industry Watch
Tech: AI trade cools after hot run
Tech has slipped over the past week and month even though 1 year and year to date returns stay solidly positive. Headlines around heavy AI data center spending and funding limits from companies like Nvidia, Meta and Tesla are making investors more selective about pure AI stories.
If a chunk of your portfolio sits in broad US tech or AI themed ETFs, the key near term catalyst is today’s US S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMIs, since softer activity can ease yield pressure and help rate sensitive tech rebound.
Semiconductors: Strong year meets sharp pullback
Semiconductors are still well ahead year to date and over 1 year, yet the past 7 and 30 days show a clear retreat. Supply chain constraints flagged by Lam Research, layoffs at Qualcomm, and mixed reactions to reports from Astera Labs, Western Digital and others highlight how dependent chip demand is on ongoing AI and cloud hardware orders.
If you own chip stocks or ETFs, focus on Astera’s Q3 report on November 3, since its AI infrastructure update will give a clearer read on how deep the current pause in high end data center spending really is.
Energy & Oil and Gas: Higher-for-longer energy story persists
Energy and Oil and Gas are both modestly higher over seven days and the last month, on top of very strong 1 year gains. A smaller than expected US natural gas storage build, long dated LNG deals from Cheniere, and fresh pipeline investment from Kinder Morgan keep attention on US supply, cash generation and export capacity even as the broader market wobbles.
For anyone holding US producers or pipeline focused ETFs, the single data point to track is the weekly US crude and product inventory report, because any sign of tight supply at current price levels tends to feed directly into earnings power and shareholder return capacity for this group.
Real Estate: Small bounce capped by high rates
Real Estate has gained over the past week but is slightly softer on a 30 day view, which lines up with brief rallies under a still high rate ceiling. The first dip in the 30 year US mortgage rate in nine weeks to 7.32% helps affordability at the margin, yet pending home sales data and commentary from players like Rocket Companies still point to cautious buyers and slower deal flow.
If you hold REITs or homebuilders, today’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading is the catalyst to watch, because any surprise swing in household confidence often shows up quickly in traffic to open houses, rent decisions and demand for new leases.
Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals & Biotech: Trial data and deals drive steady gains
Healthcare along with Pharmaceuticals & Biotech are up across the week, month and 1 year, helped by a steady stream of clinical results and transaction news. Positive trial updates from Alnylam, Vera Therapeutics and others, plus licensing and M&A moves at Gilead, Biohaven and Zai Lab, remind investors that this sector often moves on science and regulation more than day to day consumer spending.
If you use Healthcare as a stabiliser in your portfolio, the key macro signal in the week ahead is US Core PCE inflation, because a firm reading tends to keep demand in place for sectors where earnings feel less tied to short term swings in growth and retail activity.
Where Are The Opportunities Now?
With the first dip in 30 year US mortgage rates after nine straight weekly increases, income focused investors can start with this list of 6 dividend fortresses
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