09:32 AM EDT, 10/23/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets revised its forecasts for Barclays (BARC.L) amid a model update following the British banking group's third-quarter results. "We have updated our structural hedge modelling and now estimate structural hedge income of GBP7.2bn/GBP8.2bn/GBP9.3bn in FY26/ FY27/FY28. Our numbers assume that: i) BARC's hedge product notional increases FY28/Q3'26 by c.0.2% CAGR; and ii) that the bulk of swaps in BARC's structural hedge are 7 years," analysts wrote in a Friday note. "Whilst structural hedge NII tailwinds are well understood, the continuation of elevated deposit competition and its second order implications are underappreciated in our view." The research firm's forecast changes include a 1% uplift to its 2026 projection for adjusted profit before tax, while that for 2027 was lowered by 3%, mainly due to higher impairment expectations. For 2028, the estimate for the same metric was lowered by 2%. With regard to shareholder returns, RBC expects 6.6 billion pounds sterling in dividends and 11 billion pounds in share buybacks over the 2026 to 2028 period, totaling 17.6 billion pounds, compared with Barclays' guidance of more than 15 billion pounds. The outperform rating on the stock was reiterated, along with the price target of 5.25 pounds.

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