March NY world sugar #11 (SBH27) is up +0.04 (+0.20%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ26) is up +0.20 (+0.04%).
Sugar prices are seeing some support today after Unica reported that Brazil Center-South sugar output in August fell -5.6% y/y to 7.089 MT. Recent heavy rains in Brazil have disrupted harvesting and crushing.
Sugar prices have support from the developing Super-El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, which could curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions, thus cutting world sugar production.
India’s Meteorological Department reported on September 30 that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 12.6% below normal as of September 30, the weakest in 11 years. India’s monsoon season runs from June through September. India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.
On August 20, India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it would allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country tax-free until October 31, and on October 22 announced an extension to December 31. The move further signals the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season.
On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT. ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT. India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies.
In a supportive factor for sugar prices, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts that global sugar production in 2026/27 will fall by -1% y/y to 180.1 MMT, causing a global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT, due to the potential negative impact of the El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.
Looking farther ahead, Czarnikow on August 14 predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand.
The tighter forecasts for 2026/27 and 2027/28 follow a record year for sugar in 2025/26. ISO pegs 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and a 2025/26 global sugar surplus of 1.1 MMT.
The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26. Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT. The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by +2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -2.5% y/y to 42.2 MMT. FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -1.7% y/y to 29.5 MMT, and that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production would fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.