Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) has put fresh numbers on the table, updating investors with revised 2026 production guidance and detailed third quarter output, sales volumes and revenue figures released on 21 October 2026.
The fresh production guidance and Q3 update land after a strong run in Woodside Energy Group’s shares, with the year to date share price return at 38.88% and a 1 month share price return of 5.56% pointing to building momentum. Over a longer horizon, investors who held through recent project milestones and previous cycles have seen a 1 year total shareholder return of 41.85% and a 5 year total shareholder return of 106.52%. This frames today’s A$32.86 share price and the latest guidance tweaks as part of a broader story of shifting expectations around Woodside’s growth projects and risk profile.
Scan Woodside Energy Group’s peers that are riding similar LNG and production catalysts by reviewing our hand picked 16 top copper producer stocks alongside this latest guidance and Q3 update.
After a 38.88% run this year and fresh guidance tied to Scarborough and other projects, the question is simple: Do you lean into Woodside Energy Group at A$32.86 today or wait for a better entry?
Most Popular Narrative: 10.2% Undervalued
Woodside Energy Group last closed at A$32.86, while the most followed valuation story on the stock pegs fair value at A$36.60. That gap puts the fresh production guidance and Q3 update in the spotlight for anyone weighing whether the market is being too cautious or simply marking time ahead of new LNG volumes.
At A$36.602 per share, Woodside Energy Group (ASX: WDS) appears reasonably valued based on its existing operations and near-term production growth. Woodside reports in US dollars and recorded 2025 operating revenue of US$12.9 billion, underlying profit of US$2.65 billion and earnings of US$1.43 per share. Using an assumed exchange rate of US$0.70 per Australian dollar gives earnings of approximately A$2.04 per share and a P/E ratio of around 18 times.
See why 20 investors see Woodside Energy Group as 10% undervalued.
According to Jamesiskindacool, the valuation work builds in contributions from projects already under construction while still tying the bulk of the value back to existing LNG and oil assets. That framing matters for investors looking at A$32.86 today and asking whether the production guidance reset and higher net debt from Scarborough, Trion and Louisiana LNG spending justify the discount to this A$36.60 narrative fair value.
Result: Fair Value of A$36.60 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, Woodside Energy Group’s narrative could be shaken by any meaningful shift in oil and gas prices, or by material delays and cost changes on Scarborough and Pluto Train 2.
Find out about the key risks to this Woodside Energy Group narrative.
Next Steps
See something different in the way Woodside Energy Group balances those risks and rewards. Move quickly, review the details, then weigh the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Woodside Energy Group?
If Woodside Energy Group has sharpened your focus on where capital works hardest, do not stop here. The market is full of opportunities waiting to be screened.
- Lock in potential income stability by scanning for companies that qualify as 6 dividend fortresses and see which payouts could strengthen your portfolio.
- Hunt for mispriced quality by reviewing the 4 high quality undervalued stocks and spot businesses where fundamentals and valuations still look out of sync.
- Build a sturdier foundation by targeting stocks in the list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (12 results) so cash reserves and low leverage help protect you when conditions change.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com