Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
BOH reports before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the first full trading session reaction to results, while Day +1 reflects follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | -$3.95 (-4.70%) | $4.40 (5.23%) | +$0.05 (+0.06%) | $1.48 (1.85%) |
| 2026-04-20 | -$0.03 (-0.04%) | $5.33 (6.65%) | -$2.28 (-2.85%) | $2.67 (3.33%) |
| 2026-01-26 | +$4.31 (+6.09%) | $3.36 (4.75%) | -$0.35 (-0.47%) | $3.58 (4.77%) |
| 2025-10-27 | +$0.17 (+0.27%) | $3.78 (5.92%) | +$1.47 (+2.29%) | $2.35 (3.67%) |
| 2025-07-28 | -$2.82 (-4.29%) | $4.10 (6.23%) | -$0.26 (-0.41%) | $1.25 (1.99%) |
| 2025-04-21 | -$0.63 (-0.97%) | $2.71 (4.16%) | +$2.43 (+3.77%) | $1.85 (2.87%) |
| 2025-01-27 | +$3.04 (+4.28%) | $4.17 (5.87%) | +$1.32 (+1.78%) | $1.88 (2.54%) |
| 2024-10-28 | +$6.34 (+9.60%) | $5.23 (7.91%) | +$0.42 (+0.58%) | $1.54 (2.13%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 3.78% | 5.84% | 1.53% | 2.89% |
BOH has exhibited significant volatility around earnings releases, with Day 0 moves averaging 3.78% in absolute terms and ranging as wide as 5.84%. The most recent report on July 27, 2026 saw the stock decline 4.70% despite beating estimates, suggesting investors were disappointed by guidance or forward-looking commentary. Prior to that, the January 2026 report triggered a strong 6.09% rally, while October 2024's report produced the largest move at 9.60%.
Day +1 follow-through has been more muted, averaging 1.53% with a typical range of 2.89%. The pattern suggests initial reactions tend to be decisive, with limited reversal or continuation the following session. Investors should prepare for meaningful volatility on Monday, particularly given the focus on margin sustainability and the stock's recent underperformance relative to longer-term moving averages.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 11/20/26 (DTE 28) |
| Expected Move | $3.88 (5.50%) |
| Expected Range | $66.75 to $74.51 |
| Implied Volatility | 33.71% |
The options market is pricing an expected move of 5.50% (roughly $3.88 in either direction from $70.63), which is notably higher than BOH's average historical Day 0 move of 3.78%. This suggests options traders are anticipating above-average volatility for this release, likely reflecting uncertainty around whether the bank can maintain its margin expansion trajectory and deliver on year-end targets.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain a cautious stance on BOH heading into earnings, with a consensus rating of Hold (3.00 on the five-point scale). The breakdown shows 1 Buy, 6 Holds, and 1 Sell among the eight analysts covering the stock. The average price target of $80.28 implies 13.7% upside from the current price of $70.60, with estimates ranging from a low of $75.00 to a high of $85.00.
Sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, indicating analysts are holding steady in their views despite the upcoming earnings catalyst. The predominance of Hold ratings reflects a wait-and-see approach—analysts appear to be looking for confirmation that margin gains can continue and that the bank's profitability improvements are sustainable before upgrading their stance.
Piper Sandler's recent price target reduction from $85 to $78 while maintaining a Hold rating exemplifies the cautious optimism on the Street. The firm appears to acknowledge BOH's execution on margin expansion while tempering expectations for further upside, possibly due to concerns about the rate environment or competitive pressures in the bank's core markets.
Part 4: Technical Picture
BOH enters earnings with a Sell signal at 72% on the Barchart Technical Opinion, though the signal has been weakening from 88% last week and 56% last month. This deterioration in bearish intensity suggests some stabilization after recent weakness, though the overall technical picture remains cautious.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal indicates near-term momentum remains negative but is less pronounced than in prior weeks
- Medium-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal across the intermediate timeframe reflects sustained downward pressure over recent months
- Long-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal suggests the longer-term trend has weakened but hasn't completely broken down
Trend Characteristics: The signal strength is characterized as Strong but Weakening, indicating that while bearish pressure remains significant, the intensity is diminishing heading into the earnings release—potentially setting up for a technical bounce if results exceed expectations.
The stock is trading at $70.60, positioned above its 5-day ($69.15), 10-day ($67.93), and 20-day ($68.10) moving averages, suggesting some short-term stabilization. However, it remains below the critical 50-day ($72.73), 100-day ($76.71), and 200-day ($76.41) moving averages, confirming the medium-term downtrend remains intact.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $69.15 | 50-Day MA | $72.73 |
| 10-Day MA | $67.93 | 100-Day MA | $76.71 |
| 20-Day MA | $68.10 | 200-Day MA | $76.41 |
The 50-day moving average at $72.73 represents immediate overhead resistance, while the 200-day at $76.41 marks a more significant technical hurdle. The stock's position below all longer-term averages but above short-term ones creates a neutral setup—BOH has stabilized from recent lows but needs a strong earnings catalyst to break through resistance levels. The weakening sell signal combined with short-term momentum improvement suggests the technical setup is less hostile than it was a month ago, potentially allowing for upside if the bank delivers on margin targets and guidance.