Key Points
SpaceX has several key developments on the way.
The bull, bear, and base scenarios depend on how those events unfold.
Wall Street is firmly in the bull scenario camp.
Some initial public offerings (IPOs) receive a lot of hype, then turn out to be nothingburgers. That isn't the case with Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX), better known as SpaceX.
SpaceX's IPO on June 12, 2026, was the biggest in the stock market's history. The stock continues to command the spotlight, with many investors watching its every move.
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Nearly five months after its IPO, SpaceX's shares hover near a level close to their IPO price. But where will SpaceX stock trade on the first anniversary of its IPO?
Image source: SpaceX. Image source: SpaceX.
Key developments between now and June 12, 2027
SpaceX's share price on June 12, 2027, will depend largely on what happens between now and then. And the company has several key developments on its calendar.
Quarterly earnings reports always have the potential to move stocks. We saw this borne out recently, with SpaceX beating earnings expectations for the third quarter of 2026 while recording lower-than-anticipated capital expenditures. Its stock promptly surged.
Lockup expirations (the end of a period following an IPO when company insiders and early investors are legally allowed to sell their shares on the open market) are another important factor for SpaceX. SpaceX's full 180-day lockup expires on Dec. 8, 2026. Founder Elon Musk will be able to sell his 6.4 billion shares on June 12, 2027.
Musk also revealed that SpaceX and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) are exploring a merger. To be sure, this isn't a done deal. Musk even stated, "I think some people out there assume that a SpaceX and Tesla merger is a certainty, and I think that would be overstating it."
SpaceX will also be eligible for potential inclusion in the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) in mid-2027. The key hurdle to joining the index will be demonstrating profitability, which gets us back to those quarterly earnings reports.
Three scenarios for SpaceX
Let's look at three scenarios for SpaceX over the next year. Each scenario depends on how the previously discussed events unfold.
I think the bull case for SpaceX is that its shares trade between $220 and $240 one year after its IPO. The midpoint of this range reflects an upside of around 50% above the current share price.
For this scenario to play out, SpaceX will need to quickly shake off the negative impact of its lockup expirations. The company will need to continue growing robustly. If SpaceX merges with Tesla, the terms of the deal must be favorable to SpaceX shareholders.
The bear case for SpaceX, in my view, is that the stock trades between $90 and $110 on June 12, 2027. In this scenario, insiders dump their shares in December, creating significant downward pressure on SpaceX's share price. The company doesn't demonstrate a clear path to profitability, thereby delaying its inclusion in the S&P 500. A bungled merger with Tesla could also contribute to the bear case.
What's the base case? As you might expect, it's somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. In this base case scenario, SpaceX's shares are between $165 and $185 by mid-2027. The midpoint of the range is roughly 14% higher than the current share price. For this scenario to happen, SpaceX's growth story and potential Tesla merger are enough to overcome the drag from the lockup expirations -- but not by much.
My prediction
Wall Street is firmly in the bull camp. The consensus 12-month price target for SpaceX is $240, the high end of my bull case scenario for the stock. Of course, 12 months from now will be several months after SpaceX's IPO anniversary. However, analysts clearly lean more toward the bull case scenario than the base or bear scenarios.
I'm not quite as bullish as Wall Street. However, I think SpaceX could beat the base-case price range. I predict the stock will trade around $200 on June 12, 2027.
As I always do when making a prediction, I will admit that I could be totally dead wrong. There are more uncertainties with SpaceX than with many other stocks.
However, SpaceX could easily be one of the most important companies of the 21st century. Whether I'm right about where the stock will be next year or not, its long-term prospects are exciting.
Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.