How the latest guidance and earnings frame Northrop Grumman stock
Northrop Grumman (NOC) just paired fresh third quarter results with reaffirmed 2026 guidance, signaling expected higher fourth quarter sales across its portfolio, driven by production throughput, material volumes and normal seasonality.
At a share price of US$551.44, Northrop Grumman has seen a 7.2% one-month share price return and a 6.1% gain over the past week. However, the stock is still down 5.8% year to date, with a one-year total shareholder return that has declined 7.5%, even as the three-year and five-year total shareholder returns of 22.5% and 67.4% keep the longer-term story intact.
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After a sharp bounce in Northrop Grumman over the past month, but a weaker year to date, the key issue now is simple: does the current valuation still compensate you for the risks you are taking on?
Most Popular Narrative: 11.5% Undervalued
Against the latest close at $551.44, the most followed narrative for Northrop Grumman assigns a fair value of $623.00 using an 8.54% discount rate. This frames the recent rebound as still short of that implied worth.
The current valuation, set against raised 2026 sales and EPS guidance, reaffirmed free cash flow targets, and the scale of funded backlog and multi year missile agreements, is described in this narrative as not fully reflecting these earnings and cash flow opportunities. Within this view, the stock is characterized as undervalued and sentiment as bullish.
See why 112 investors see Northrop Grumman as 11% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $623 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the Northrop Grumman narrative leans heavily on the flawless delivery of complex fixed price programs and on sustained high capital spending that must translate into profitable volume.
Find out about the key risks to this Northrop Grumman narrative.
Next Steps
Opinions differ on whether Northrop Grumman is currently priced fairly. Examine the numbers closely yourself and weigh the risks against the potential upside using our 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
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