CITIC Securities released a research report saying that according to the announcement of the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation on October 12, the export tax rebate rate for new energy vehicles will be reduced from 13% to 9% in April 2027. Following photovoltaics and power batteries, the “three new” categories of tax rebates have declined, putting pressure on the industry in the short term. Currently, the tax-related scale of automobile exports has reached the 100 billion level, and profit differentiation will intensify. Car companies can rely on overseas factories in Thailand and Brazil to hedge tax burdens using a dual model of domestic export+overseas CKD production; vehicles can drive parts to go overseas in collaboration, which can not only absorb upward pressure on taxes and fees, but also ease overseas trade frictions. The trend of rapid short-term export growth is under pressure, and export growth is expected to decline in 2027; long-term overseas competition will shift to system capacity competition.

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