According to Woofun AI, overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market weakened, and the Bitcoin (BTC) price fell back to $80,500, down 8% from this month's high, driving the total market capitalization to shrink to 2.7 trillion US dollars. This macro-downward pressure was directly transmitted to relevant listed companies, leading to a significant retreat in core targets such as Strategy (MSTR.US), SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US), and Coinbase (COIN.US).
Strategy became the focus of the market game this week, and its stock price has dropped more than 14% from this month's high. The underlying reason is a combination of negative points: First, the Fed's interest rate decision window is approaching. As the institution that holds the most Bitcoin, Strategy's stock price is highly tied to the BTC price, and the continued weakening of currency prices directly suppresses its valuation. Second, the pace of regular disclosure is abnormal. The company usually announces the increase in Bitcoin holdings every Monday, but since Michael Saylor (Michael Saylor) did not issue a usual reminder on Sunday, the market generally speculates that it did not carry out any buying operations last week, which weakened short-term bullish confidence.
The more critical variable is the financial report to be released on Thursday. Saylor previously stated that thanks to the recovery in Bitcoin prices, the company achieved a profit of 21 billion US dollars last quarter. Whether this huge book income can be converted into continuous cash flow support will be the key to verifying its fundamental resilience.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, Strategy's position changes and earnings expectations will be the core anchor in determining the direction of its stock price this week.
SoFi Technologies, on the other hand, is mired in a contradiction between fundamental improvements and technical gaps. Despite the company relaunching the cryptocurrency trading business and launching the stablecoin SoFiUSD, whose asset size has grown to $350 million, and analysts expect third-quarter revenue to increase 33% year over year to $1.26 billion, and earnings per share to rise to 17 cents, the stock price fell sharply from $32 in November last year to $14.6.
From a structural point of view, the stock is currently showing an inverted pattern and has fallen below the 50% retracement level. The deterioration of this technical pattern indicates that even if supported by revenue growth expectations, the stock price may still face room for further decline, and the market is cautious about its actual ability to realize diversified transformation.
Coinbase's financial performance has also been affected by a decline of more than 63% since its peak last year, in line with the downturn in the crypto market. Analysts expect its third-quarter revenue to continue to decline, but the market's focus has turned to the progress of diversification of its business. By launching tokenized stocks, Coinbase aims to build a stable revenue stream in a bear market environment, while integrating pre-initial public offering (IPO) share allocation functions and AI agent services within the app to broaden revenue boundaries.
Notably, several well-known institutions raised their expectations; Needham's John Todaro raised their price target from $200 to $205, while Citigroup (C.US) raised it from $210 to $230. This is a sign that institutions are repricing the potential of Coinbase's non-custodial business following the gradual acceptance of crypto assets by traditional financial giants. If it makes a substantial breakthrough in the tokenized stock sector, the stock price is expected to rebound.