The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that large model capabilities continue to improve, inference costs continue to decline, and AI industry competition is extending from iterative model capabilities to application scenarios, product experience, and commercialization capabilities. The bank believes that AI applications are expected to enter a stage of accelerated product innovation and commercialization. Agents will promote the restructuring of office, marketing, and enterprise workflows. Advances in video generation technology are expected to drive the improvement of content production efficiency and the expansion of new content forms, and accelerate the development of AI film, television, comics, interactive entertainment and other applications. The media industry has rich content/IP resources, user traffic and commercialization scenarios, and is expected to become an important beneficiary direction for AI application implementation. Industrial opportunities will gradually be concentrated on enterprises with high-quality IP, traffic entry, product operation and commercialization capabilities. It is recommended to grasp the three main lines of “AI content innovation, AI application commercialization, and game performance cycle”.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
The media sector outperformed the market in September
In September 2026, the media sector (Shenwan Media Index) fell by 3.92%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 1.86 percentage points, ranking 15th among Shenwan's 31 first-level industries. In terms of individual stocks, Xinhua Media, Xinhua Wenxuan, Longpan Media, and Inner Mongolia's Xinhua had the highest gains, while Beitou Technology, Giant Network, 3D Communications, and Perfect World had the highest declines. In terms of valuation, the Shenwan Media Index is 31.1 times TTM-PE, which is in the 34.3% fraction of the past 5 years.
Games: Editions are distributed on a regular basis, and domestic and overseas revenue continues to grow
In September, a total of 206 domestic games and 3 imported games passed the review. A total of 1,571 editions were released from January to September 2026, an increase of 23.2% over the previous year. The actual sales revenue of the domestic game market in August was 31.6 billion yuan, up 8.1% year on year. Among them, mobile and client revenue was 23.4 billion yuan and 6.7 billion yuan respectively, up 8.6% and 2.1% year on year. During the same period, overseas revenue from self-developed games was US$2,030 million, an increase of 20.8% over the previous year, and Diandian Interactive ranked first in the overseas revenue list. It is expected that 15 new models will be launched in October. The number will remain stable compared to the previous month. Focus on the release of new products and the implementation of annual results.
Film and television content: The September and National Day movie markets lacked the performance of leading blockbusters, and the popularity of comics and AI reality dramas continued to grow rapidly
1) The total box office in September was 1.37 billion yuan, down 48.5% year on year, and the number of movie viewers was 34 million, down 51.2% year on year. The average ticket price was 39.2 yuan. “Welcome to Dragon Restaurant” continues to lead the way with 353 million yuan. The National Day box office was 1,165 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.5%. 2) In terms of series and variety shows, “Lan Xiang Yu” led the entire network series with 1.405 billion views, and “Heartfelt Signal Season 9” ranked first with a 15.00% share of the full online feature film market share. 3) The head comic Douyin has accumulated more than 1.5 billion views, and the head AI reality drama has been viewed more than 1 billion times.
AI applications: model cost reduction, expansion of agent ecosystems at home and abroad, and accelerated expansion of vendor competition to offices, development and content production
1) Overseas models: OpenAI and Anthropic continue to reduce costs, and Google upgrades real-time voice and image models. 2) Overseas applications: ChatGPT, Claude, and Workspace accelerate integration into office and development workflows. 3) Domestic platforms: Doubao's work integrates Feishu, Kuaishou opens a limited Kling 4.0 Flash experience, Tencent's integrated model service, and Alibaba develops full-mode and real-time translation. 4) Independent Vendors: Intelligent Spectrum and Kimi deepened programming agents, MiniMax promoted authorized IP cooperation, and DeepSeek continued the cost-effective route.
Risk warning: Risks such as impairment of goodwill, performance falling short of expectations, changes in management and regulatory policies, and implementation of new technology falling short of expectations.