The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that as AI video generation capabilities cross the threshold of commercial popularity, the advantages of AI skits over short videos in terms of subject diversity and content freedom are gradually highlighted, and the scale of the industry is expected to continue to expand rapidly. Looking at the competitive landscape, downstream distribution platforms use market-based distribution+competition mechanisms to overcome the fittest to push short drama producers from extensive expansion to refined operation. The competitive pattern is expected to be optimized. It is recommended to focus on platforms with traffic entry and distribution capabilities, as well as production companies with high-quality IP, mature AI workflows, and stable sales rates.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
Industry trends: Improved model capabilities drive the evolution of AI skits to simulation and industrial production
Compared to online articles and long videos, short dramas are a type of consumer product with low viewing costs and light addiction. The audience has a high tolerance for product quality, but they require strong timeliness and sensory stimulation, and are highly suited to the industrial production capacity of AI. After the release of Seedance 2.0, the quality of video generation improved significantly, and the number of imitation reality dramas added to Douyin's native AI dramas rose to 25,000 per month. 26M9-10 The AI drama/comic penetration rate of leading domestic and foreign short drama apps quickly increased to 90%. Currently, AI has deeply penetrated character building, script creation, screen generation, dubbing, and post-editing. The cost of a single drama can be reduced to 30,000 to 80,000 yuan. At the same time, the head team can increase production capacity and stability through self-built workflows and build competitive barriers.
Domestic market: The number of users increased at the same time as the viewing time, and the red fruit and WeChat ecosystem had a leading effect
The average monthly usage time of APPMAU and the 26M5 skit increased 77%/77% year-on-year to 402 million/26.9 hours, respectively; after combining WeChat and Douyin applets, the number of users of skit deduplicated reached 851 million. Compared to short videos, the AI short drama format is highly suited to the viewing habits of its users, and uses AI capabilities to form an advantage in the variety of topics and freedom of content. It can quickly transform social hot topics and buzzwords into its own material, and has strong potential for dissemination and expansion. Currently, there is still plenty of room for improvement in the length of use and number of users per capita. Judging from the competitive landscape, Hongguo 26M6 MAU reached 370 million, and the market share of the short drama app was about 90%; the 26M5 MAU of the Green Bubble and WeChat skit applets reached 508 million, making it the largest single user portal.
Business model: Producers' profits rely on a stable explosion rate, and midstream producers continue to clear
According to the calculation of the unit price of 15 yuan/10,000 per broadcast, an AI short drama with a single cost of 9,100 yuan requires about 6.07 million plays to achieve gross profit and loss balance. Of Douyin's native skits in 2025, only 4.4% of the series with 10 million broadcasts or more, and 0.2% of the series with over 100 million broadcasts. However, one hit with over 100 million hits can cover the cost of about 15 dramas, and stable hit output is an important guarantee for corporate profits.
Overseas markets: Asia contributes to the increase in downloads, North America has stronger payment capabilities, and Chinese skit platforms occupy the leading position in the world
Currently, the overseas skit channel consists of the “TikTok+ Short Drama App”. In 2025, the number of Asian skit app downloads reached 1.29 billion, ranking first in the world. The revenue from internal purchases corresponding to a single download in North America reached 4.3 US dollars, leading in monetization efficiency. Looking at the competitive landscape, TikTok penetrated the skit industry from the whole process of “production, distribution, and monetization”; in short drama apps, ReelShort and Dramabox maintained a lead in major markets with IP resources and first-mover advantage, and DramaWave relied on models, production tools, and AI tools on distribution platforms to achieve rapid expansion in a closed loop.