Cui Dongshu of the Passenger Federation Branch published an article saying, “At the end of 2025, our passenger car manufacturer prediction team still made a relatively neutral judgment on the 2026 car market, but in 2026, the domestic car market was sluggish beyond expectations due to multiple short-term factors. It is estimated that retail sales for the whole year will be only 18.5 million units, not only lower than the peak of 23.74 million units in 2025, but also far below the bottom of 19.29 million units in 2020. This position has clearly deviated from the long-term operating range of nearly ten years of car market box turbulence, and is in an “abnormal” state due to interference from multiple adverse factors. Looking ahead to 2027, China's forecasting team believes that with the reverse recovery of short-term impact factors, easing of cost pressure, and supply-side product power improvement, the domestic car market is expected to bottom out and pick up if policies and environment do not change beyond expectations. The domestic retail sales growth range is expected to be 0% to 5%, with an average value of 2%, and the car market differentiation will continue to intensify. ”

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