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Venezuelan opposition leader María Colina Machado arrived in Caracas on Sunday night to put an end to a full day trip through five states. A large number of supporters gathered to welcome them along the way. As the convoy drove through the toll gate into Caracas, Machado peeked out of the sunroof of a sports utility vehicle and waved to the large crowd that had been gathered there since the afternoon. This marks her return to the capital after almost a year in exile. Machado did not officially speak, but he is expected to speak publicly later this week. Scenes along the way clearly showed that despite his long departure, Venezuela's most popular political leader was still able to mobilize supporters. For many investors, Machado's return is another sign that Venezuela's political transition continues to advance. However, analysts have mixed opinions on the extent to which this progress can also boost the country's troubled bonds. “This is an unexpected development and should improve the ongoing probabilistic assessment of the political transition,” said Guillermo Guerrero, EMFI Group's research director. He said that it is almost impossible for Machado to return home without the consent of both Washington and the Venezuelan government; if the political transition progresses, it may encourage oil investment and enhance economic strength before final debt restructuring is carried out, thereby supporting bond prices. Barclays economist Alejandro Arreaza is more cautious. He said that Machado's return to China has enhanced the possibility of a political transition, which is a necessary condition for the economy to achieve sustainable recovery; however, the market seems to have taken the more optimistic scenario into account in the price.
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Venezuelan opposition leader María Colina Machado arrived in Caracas on Sunday night to put an end to a full day trip through five states. A large number of supporters gathered to welcome them along the way. As the convoy drove through the toll gate into Caracas, Machado peeked out of the sunroof of a sports utility vehicle and waved to the large crowd that had been gathered there since the afternoon. This marks her return to the capital after almost a year in exile. Machado did not officially speak, but he is expected to speak publicly later this week. Scenes along the way clearly showed that despite his long departure, Venezuela's most popular political leader was still able to mobilize supporters. For many investors, Machado's return is another sign that Venezuela's political transition continues to advance. However, analysts have mixed opinions on the extent to which this progress can also boost the country's troubled bonds. “This is an unexpected development and should improve the ongoing probabilistic assessment of the political transition,” said Guillermo Guerrero, EMFI Group's research director. He said that it is almost impossible for Machado to return home without the consent of both Washington and the Venezuelan government; if the political transition progresses, it may encourage oil investment and strengthen economic strength before final debt restructuring is carried out, thereby supporting bond prices. Barclays economist Alejandro Arreaza is more cautious. He said that Machado's return to China has enhanced the possibility of a political transition, which is a necessary condition for the economy to achieve sustainable recovery; however, the market seems to have taken the more optimistic scenario into account in the price.
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