The Zhitong Finance App learned that J.P. Morgan Chase's latest research report said that the Imdelltra first-line maintenance treatment data announced by Amgen (AMGN.US) at the ESMO conference last weekend was “impressive”, or may support the drug's advance towards an earlier treatment line, making it a potentially 5 billion dollar blockbuster product. However, the bank still maintains a “neutral” rating, with a target price of $350, which is lower than the current stock price of about $439.
How strong is the data? Overall survival time HR 0.42, progression-free survival time is more than three times
Amgen announced the DellPHI-305 phase III trial results at the European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual meeting over the weekend. In extensive small cell lung cancer, which is recognized as “difficult to treat,” patients treated with Imdelltra and AstraZeneca Imfinzi had a median overall survival (MoS) of 21.1 months, compared to only 12.7 months in the Imfinzi group alone, and the risk of death (HR) was as low as 0.42.
More intuitively, progression-free survival (mPFs): 7.4 months for the combined group and only 1.9 months for the single drug group, an increase of more than three times. Chris Schott, an analyst at J.P. Morgan Chase, put it bluntly that this margin of benefit “supports Imdelltra's important role in earlier treatment lines.”
Amgen plans to submit this data to the US FDA in the near future. Given the extent of efficacy, J.P. Morgan thought it was “unsurprising” — the data may have been included in NCCN and other treatment guidelines before full approval.
Three engines: doubling the population, 2.5 times longer medication, improving compliance
J.P. Morgan estimates that Imdelltra's advance to the front line will have a triple amplification effect: First, the target population will expand. There are about 23,000 first-line small-cell lung cancer patients in the US, which is significantly higher than the 14,000 second-line patients, and this population will continue to expand as patients live longer.
Second, the duration of medication was significantly lengthened. The median duration of treatment with DellPHI-305 is about 2.5 times that of second-line medication, meaning that a single patient contributes to a longer revenue cycle.
Third, improving accessibility and compliance. Previously, the first two infusions required 22-24 hours of monitoring, but now it has been reduced to 6-8 hours, and first-line maintenance treatment is reduced to 1-2 hours; the incidence of combined adverse effects is lower, which directly translates into a higher penetration rate.
Together, J.P. Morgan sees Imdelltra as Amgen's potential single product worth more than $5 billion, and is optimistic about the “upside” of its consistent market expectations.
Behind caution: neutral rating, inverted target price
Despite clear highlights in the research pipeline, J.P. Morgan maintains a “neutral” rating for Amgen, with a target price of $350 — an inversion of about 20% compared to the closing price of $439.26 on October 23.
This cautious attitude continues the bank's rating trajectory over the past two years: since January 2024 (target of $290), October 2024 (target of $300), and August 2026 (target of $350), the rating has not been raised to “gain”, and the increase in the target price clearly lags behind the actual increase in the stock price.
Known as the “king of cancer,” small cell lung cancer progresses rapidly and has poor prognosis. The first-line standard regimen has long been dominated by PD-L1 inhibitors combined with chemotherapy. As a bispecific T-cell adaptor, Imdelltra's current first-line maintenance phase data brought incremental options to this long-term “drug shortage” field.
For investors, the report's message is clear: a good medicine doesn't have to be a good buy. Whether the fulfillment of Imdelltra's prospects can offset Amgen's hidden concerns about the patent cliff, competitive pressure, and overall pipeline return will be the key to determining the direction of its valuation.