Bank of China International released a report that China Aluminum's net profit for the third quarter is expected to fall 5% month-on-month to 6.031 billion yuan, mainly due to the narrowing of gross profit per unit of raw aluminum from month to month, which is affected by falling aluminum prices. Net profit for the first nine months is expected to be 17.9 billion yuan, up 65% year-on-year, equivalent to 80% of the bank's full-year forecast. According to the report, spot aluminum prices in the Yangtze River in Shanghai fell 2% month-on-month to about 23,700 yuan per ton in the third quarter. With the average price of alumina remaining flat and the average price of carbon anodes rising 1% month-on-month, the gross profit per unit of the raw aluminum division is expected to drop 6% month-on-month, which is the main reason for the slight decline in profit; in terms of production, alumina and raw aluminum materials both increased 1% month-on-month. The bank reiterated its “buy” rating, believing that its projected dividend rate of 8.7% to 10.4% for 2026 to 2028 is attractive; it lowered its target price from HK$11.09 to HK$10.46 to reflect the recent rise in risk-free interest rates. The new target price is equivalent to 6.8 times the projected price-earnings ratio in 2026.

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