Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is showing renewed strength against technology stocks as a key historical indicator is shows a bullish signal after a prolonged correction.
Why Is BTC Outperforming Tech?
Bitcoin Magazine market analyst Sean Hagan highlighted a bullish reversal in the Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq Composite ratio, which measures Bitcoin’s performance relative to technology stocks.
The ratio reclaimed its 200-day moving average on Sept. 18 after spending 235 consecutive trading sessions below it and has held above that level despite the recent equity sell-off.
Historically, Bitcoin gained over the following year in five of six comparable signals, delivering a median return of approximately 84% since 2015.
The latest recovery follows a 62% decline in the ratio through June 30, compared with previous cycle drawdowns of 87% in 2015, 83% in 2019 and 69% in 2022.
In a podcast on Oct. 24, the analyst noted that Bitcoin’s 90-day beta to the Nasdaq currently stands at 0.75, compared with 1.43 before a failed bullish signal in 2021.
Since the Nasdaq’s Oct. 6 record high, the index has declined 5.8%, while Bitcoin has fallen just 5%, suggesting the cryptocurrency is beginning to decouple from technology stocks.
Can Bitcoin Reach $100,000 By Year-End?
Hagan said Bitcoin’s current setup resembles successful recoveries in 2015, 2019 and 2023, following 235 sessions below its 200-day average.
Bitcoin’s relative strength remains above key moving averages, while the Puell Multiple has flashed bullish signals since late September.
The analyst sees Bitcoin potentially reaching $100,000 by year-end as its relative strength against tech stocks improves.
However, a close below the Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq ratio’s 200-day moving average, currently equivalent to roughly $76,000–$77,000 for Bitcoin, would invalidate the bullish outlook.
While historical patterns favor further upside, macroeconomic risks like elevated oil prices and treasury yields and limited historical data leave room for a failed breakout and volatility.
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