According to Woofun AI, the New York digital asset market showed a significant downward trend on the 26th local time. The core driving force was Bitcoin (BTC)'s failure to return to the critical psychological threshold of $80,000. The failure of this price resistance level, compounded by the centralized liquidation of large-scale leveraged positions and a substantial decline in spot purchasing power, together suppressed overall investor sentiment.
Despite the accumulation of liquidity above the main price range due to the closure of large numbers of sell orders, providing a technical basis for a potential rebound, the short-term trend of the market remains weak. According to CoinMarketCap statistics, the total market value of the entire digital asset market on the same day was 2680 billion US dollars, down 0.61% from the previous day;
Meanwhile, 24-hour trading volume surged to US$68.42 billion, an increase of 84.35%, reflecting an abnormal increase in trading activity during the market decline. Bitcoin's share of the overall market remained at 60.0%, while the Fear and Greed Index recorded 43, which is at a “neutral” level, indicating that market sentiment is neither panicked nor greedy, but rather stuck on the sidelines. Bitcoin fluctuated repeatedly near the $80,000 mark. Although it hit this level twice in the intraday period, it failed to maintain its upward momentum. The final closing price was $70,9841.94, down 0.81% from the previous day.
Mainstream altcoins generally followed the general market decline, but some assets showed divergent characteristics. Ethereum (ETH) shares fell 1.49% to $2312.22; Ripple (XRP) fell 0.35% to $1.29; SOL shares fell 1.22% to $100.35; and Dogecoin (DOGE) fell 0.26% to $0.07704. In contrast, Binance Coin (BNB) rose slightly by 0.08% to $742.13; ZEC shares rose 1.05% and traded at $1229.82; HYPE performed the strongest, rising 2.50% to $78.93.
This fragmentation suggests that capital may be hedging or looking for opportunities in specific sectors. The impact of large-scale liquidation and weak spot demand became the core factors limiting the market's rebound. Over the weekend, Bitcoin shares dropped sharply from $80,800 to $70,9,100. Cryptocurrency analyst @CryptoReviewing pointed out in an X platform analysis that approximately $1.3 billion of positions were forcibly closed during this decline.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the current market liquidity distribution shows obvious range-agglomeration characteristics: in the range of $76,500 to $79,500, $2.2 billion of liquidity is concentrated; in the $80,000 to $80,000 range, there is $3.1 billion in liquidity. @CryptoReviewing is a special reminder that in a situation where demand for spot purchases continues to weaken, if the leverage ratio continues to rise, any short-term rebound in the market will be difficult to sustain because there is a lack of real buying support.
The fragmentation of institutional capital flows has further exacerbated market uncertainty. At the beginning of last week, the Bitcoin Spot ETF saw an inflow of $1,075 million, showing initial interest from institutional investors; however, an outflow of $774 million followed, resulting in a weekly net inflow of only about $301 million.
This weak net outflow indicates that institutional capital is cautious around current prices and has not formed a strong buying consensus. Whether it can rise back to the $80,000 mark has become a key watershed in the current market trend. Especially at a time when the Federal Reserve is about to make interest rate decisions, macroeconomic policy uncertainty has significantly increased market volatility. Bougar Ushi Zadeh, CEO of Matcha Exchange, believes that Bitcoin is strengthening its resilience to macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks. He pointed out that as the trading structure gradually favors institutional derivatives and spot ETFs, the market mechanism is more mature, and once the negative factors are mitigated, Bitcoin's upward trend may reappear.
This view emphasizes the supporting role of structural changes in long-term prices rather than short-term fluctuations.
Market participants had mixed expectations about the trend before and after the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. @KillaXBT expects that around the FOMC meeting, Bitcoin's stock price may fluctuate by 10% to 15%. If it rises, the price is expected to break through $86,000 or even reach more than $90,000.
This optimistic expectation is based on betting on policy easing or favorable news. In contrast, @CryptoMichNL is cautious, analyzing that if Bitcoin fails to break through the $80,000 mark, it may try to return to the $78,400 to $79,100 range again;
If there is not enough buying support within this range, the stock price is likely to fall below $76,000. Overall, the market is currently in the critical phase of watching whether Bitcoin can rise back to the $80,000 mark and whether spot demand improves. Given the suspense over the Fed's interest rate decision and the liquidity impact brought about by large-scale liquidation, market volatility is likely to increase further in the short term, and investors need to be wary of the double impact of leverage risks and macroeconomic policies.