The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhishang Securities released a research report saying that compared with 2025-2026, the bank believes that 2027 is an era of further digging deeper into “alpha stocks”, and that the core of the investment strategy is “entering the era of existing housing and starting with stock first”. The investment strategy for the real estate sector in 2027 suggests focusing on: 1) leading intermediaries; 2) high-quality leaders, preferably “development+operation” companies with strong cash flow and income and profits that are not entirely dependent on residential development. Furthermore, the leading third- and fourth-tier Chinese overseas Hongyang Bank believes they can also pay attention; 3) leading companies with stable dividend sharing capabilities in the commercial management and property, and dividend style.
The main views of Zheshang Securities are as follows:
Real estate industry outlook: In 2026, the real estate industry will present a pattern of “total decline and structural repair”, with major adjustments at the policy and institutional levels
In terms of fundamentals, data from the Bureau of Statistics shows a “structural repair pattern”: new housing prices in first-tier cities rose month-on-month in August, second-hand housing prices rose for six consecutive months, the same ratio in Shanghai was first corrected, the share of improved product transactions was systematically rising, and new price anchors were being formed.
In terms of policy, purchase restrictions in first-tier cities were loosened, provident funds were systematically activated, and structural interest rates were cut on September 29; the existing housing sales system was introduced on 8.28, the rules of the five cities were implemented, and the rules at the bottom of the industry were reshaped.
In terms of performance, the overall net profit margin of the 2026H1A share sector was -15%, intermediary and commercial management profits were relatively well realized, and properties remained stable. In terms of market conditions, the stock price performance of intermediaries was relatively good throughout the year; from June to July, various sectors resonated and bottomed out, and commercial management and property were under significant pressure in the second half of the year, transforming stocks into pulse-like fluctuations.
Exploring industry opportunities: In 2027, the industry will enter the “existing housing era”, and the core conflict will shift from “policies and fundamentals” to “system implementation and cash flow adaptation”
Industry perspective: The bank believes that by the end of 2026, demand-side policies should basically be exhausted, and fundamental structural restoration will enter the implementation period; however, if the existing housing system is implemented in 2027, the developer's repayment cycle will be significantly lengthened. From January to September 2026, the top 100 land acquisitions were -20.5% year-on-year, and the premium rate dropped to 6.9%. The amount of land acquired, land acquisition area, new construction, and sales all showed negative year-on-year growth. The bank believes that this trend may continue until 2027. At the same time, the bank believes that the supply side of the incremental market is clearing up at an accelerated pace, and the stock market is more favorable.
Policy outlook: In terms of real estate policy, monetary policy easing is shifting from “general interest rate reduction” to “precise interest rate cuts”. The bank believes that in the future, it can pay attention to the leveraging effect of fiscal interest rates on what is needed. Furthermore, the pace of introduction and implementation of local existing housing system rules may vary but not change the trend.
Investment perspective: The main investment line is more effective according to “relationship with existing housing systems” than “light/heavy assets” — intermediaries are basically not impacted, developers are severely divided according to cash flow adaptability, commercial management valuations depend on interest rate inflection points, properties return to dividend pricing, and industrial parks and transformation stocks are discussed one by one. The bank believes that cash flow adaptability in 2027 will replace the size of land storage as the most important influencing factor.
Risk warning:
Factors such as the risk of friction in the capital chain of housing enterprises during the transition period of the existing housing system, the risk of macroeconomic and residents' income expectations constraints, the risk of uncertain renewal of interest rate purchase policies, the risk of uncertainty about the pace of policy implementation, and the risk of slow restoration of market confidence may slow down the recovery process of the industry