The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that the two stages achieved a super bull market in oil transportation: trade restructuring in 2022 lengthened the flight range, and the increase in crude oil production in 2025 was beneficial. Maintaining the oil transportation holdings increase rating, the boom will continue to exceed expectations. Oil transportation has entered a booming phase, and the escalation of the situation in the Middle East in 2026 provides an opportunity for changes in the grey market. It is recommended to focus on the continuing impact of changes in the grey market. Oil transportation is expected to be extremely prosperous and sustainable, providing double room for performance evaluation.
Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:
Focus on changes in the grey market: It is expected to increase compliance requirements, speed up the clearance of old ships, and achieve high prosperity and sustainability
Freight rate tracking: High oil freight rates have declined somewhat, and freight rates for large scattered vessels have stabilized. 1) Crude oil transportation: Iran's attack and high freight rates curb some demand, and the industry expects the actual impact of the lifting of the shadow fleet ban to be limited; 2) Transportation of refined oil products: the resumption of trade drives high freight rates. Short-term quotas continued, medium-term trade restructuring, long-term refineries moved eastward; 3) Dry bulk freight: Mine shipments slowed down due to falling iron ore prices, and freight rates for large vessels stabilized. In the future, focus on increasing production in Simandou; 4) Container freight rates: Main lines have entered the traditional low season, and liner companies are expected to actively reduce flights and stabilize prices. Focus on Christmas spending in Europe and the US
Oil Transportation: Achieving a “Super Bull Market” in Two Stages
Phase 1: Geographical conflicts drive the restructuring of global crude oil trade. Russia and Europe “seek far away” lengthened the flight distance. It has been driving the oil transport boom up year over year for more than three years, and the capacity utilization rate has risen to a threshold. The second phase begins: global crude oil production begins to increase, driving oil transportation demand to continue to grow. The effective supply of tankers continues to be rigid. In the future, supply and demand will continue to be booming, and there are unexpected options for gray market changes.
Dispersion: Remote iron ore production increases, and the boom is expected to gradually rise
In 2021-22, benefiting from the high boom in the shipping industry and demand spillover, consolidation and diversification drove freight rate performance. In 2023-24, restorative growth after the epidemic will drive the temperature and rise in dry bulk shipping. The global iron ore production cycle has begun. In particular, the Ximandou mega-project has been put into operation and will continue to increase production. Demand is expected to exceed expectations. Supply is sluggish in the next few years, and the economy is expected to gradually recover.
Transportation: Tariff easing returns to a new normal, focusing on the new pattern of trade between China and the US
The past five years have seen two rounds of boom, and the profit base has risen. Trade and freight rates fluctuated greatly in the short term due to tariff friction between China and the US in the first half of 2025. Q3 trade returned to normal, and the main line season was not strong. In the next few years, the main line will once again face large-scale ships and supply pressure. The suspension of the 301 sanctions is in line with expectations, focusing on the new pattern of Sino-US trade and the economic impact of energy pressure. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to structural growth and opportunities in the shipping market.
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