The Zhitong Finance App noticed that the average gasoline price paid by Americans during US President Trump's tenure has exceeded the average level during the Biden administration, highlighting the political pressure faced by the Republican Party before the midterm elections.
Trump has promised to reduce the price of gasoline to less than $2 per gallon, but according to the American Automobile Association (AAA) data, the average retail price of this fuel has been $3.472 per gallon in the past two years of his administration. This surpassed the average of $3.471 during former President Joe Biden's tenure by less than 1 cent, according to daily data released by the AAA on Monday.
After the US and Israel went to war against Iran this year, gasoline prices soared and oil circulation was blocked, further squeezing global refining capacity. Over the past eight months, the US national average oil price has risen by 43%, while the price of diesel has soared by nearly 70%, to the highest level in history. This issue became the focus of Trump's Republican Party in the midterm elections, as inflation-stricken voters were further dragged down by high energy prices.
According to AAA data, Americans have never paid such a high price for fuel this late in the year. As of Sunday, the national average price was $4.286 per gallon. Biden still holds the national record for the highest price of gasoline in a single day — $5.02 per gallon in the months after Russia invaded Ukraine in June 2022.
US gasoline prices during Trump's administration are now higher than during Biden's administration
Susan Bell, senior vice president of downstream business at Smart Energy, said that the global market lacks about 400,000 barrels of gasoline that should have been exported from the Middle East every day.
Diesel costs have been the focus of the Trump administration's attention in the weeks leading up to the midterm elections, hitting a record high of $6.53 per gallon last month. The average price of diesel during Trump's tenure was already about 6% higher than during the Biden era.
Fuel prices have been targeted by critics of the Trump administration, as its rapid rise this year has exacerbated the cost of living crisis, which voters see as their number one concern. This also represents one of Trump's untrustworthy promises — he continued to criticize Biden for high oil prices during the 2024 presidential election.
Trump has repeatedly stated that gasoline and diesel prices will fall once the war with Iran is over, but the conflict shows no sign of abating. At a rally this weekend, Trump praised American Petroleum for bringing “hundreds of billions of dollars” of revenue to the country.
He said, “President Trump talks about how much money they make while people are suffering at gas stations. This will make headlines. I just don't care. I'll just say that — we've made a damn profit.”
High energy costs are threatening to turn America's crimson region into a swing state. According to Cook's Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecasting agency, the states of Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska, which Trump won by a double-digit margin in 2024, are now viewed as a well-balanced battle in the Senate election.
According to James West, managing director of Melius Research LLC, with the exception of Texas, households in all of these states spend more on energy as a share of income than the US average.
Energy issues included in the ballot
Ryan Cummings, an office director at Stanford University's Economic Policy Research Institute and a former employee economist who worked on gasoline policy at the US President's Council of Economic Advisers, said voters are likely to compare current gasoline prices with Trump's promised goal of continuing to stabilize pre-pandemic prices below $3 per gallon.
Cummings said, “Actually, what they compared was the $1.5 per gallon difference.”
The Trump administration has taken steps to mitigate the impact of fuel supply disruptions caused by the Iran war, including controversial measures such as reaching a diesel deal with Russia. However, experts said that the deal was too small to substantially boost oil prices before the November midterm elections.
On Thursday, the government also invoked wartime powers to increase US fuel production. The Department of Energy announced on Friday that it had allocated 150 million US dollars to invest in refineries.
Valero Energy (VLO.US), one of America's largest refiners, said last week that Trump's latest efforts to lower oil prices had little impact. Chief Operating Officer Gary Simmons said that Russian diesel shipments are not a “significant amount.” Valero CEO Ryan Riggs pointed out that Trump's plans to increase domestic production will not pay off anytime soon.
Riggs said, “Almost all refineries that have been shut down will take some time to restart, so it is difficult for them to mitigate the current situation. The idea that you can walk into these refineries and turn on the lights again is not in line with the actual situation.”