The Zhitong Finance App learned that Apple (AAPL.US) will announce financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 on the morning of November 3, Beijing time. Goldman Sachs released the latest forward-looking research report. Apple's Q4 revenue is expected to be $113,598 million, up 11% year over year, and is at the top of the company's 9% — 11% guidance; earnings per share are expected to be $2.01, higher than the consensus of $1.99 — revenue is basically flat, and profits slightly exceed expectations. This is Goldman Sachs's characterization of this quarter. Goldman Sachs maintained Apple's “buy” rating and raised its 12-month price target from $360 to $390.
Goldman Sachs forecast for business performance
First, iPhone's revenue is expected to be $56.561 billion, up 15% year on year. In line with the consensus, it is also in line with management's “mid-teens” (mid-teens) guidelines. It relies on “volume reduction and price increase” — shipment volume fell 4% year on year (consistent with IDC estimates), and the average price increased 20% year on year. Second, service revenue is expected to increase 10% year over year, in line with consensus and company guidelines; Apple previously indicated a 9.5% increase in Q4 services, which is equivalent to deducting about 2.5 percentage points of the month-on-month exchange rate headwind from +12% in the June quarter. Third, gross margin is estimated at 47.8%, higher than the consensus of 47.5%, and close to the median value of 47% — 48% of the company's guidance (46% — 47% excluding tariff refunds); operating expenses of US$19.375 billion, fall within the guideline range of US$19.1 billion to US$19.4 billion.
It should be noted that Goldman Sachs is more conservative about the next quarter: F1Q27 earnings of $2.88 per share, revenue of $152 billion, and gross profit margin of 46.8%, all three of which are below consensus; the company's revenue guidance is expected to grow by low to medium single digits year-on-year, while Goldman Sachs's own estimate is +5%.
iPhone: The price increase filled the pit, but this quarter was only eaten for half a quarter
iPhone shipments fell 4% year on year for three reasons: the iPhone 18 release cycle was split, and the lack of basic models led to a smaller channel distribution scale of the iPhone 17 series this season than a year ago; the supply of memory and components in the entire industry was limited; and the overall increase in mobile phone prices suppressed terminal demand. This was partly offset by continued demand for the iPhone 17 and strong launches of the iPhone 18 Pro series, particularly in China and India.
Compared to the industry, Apple's relative resilience is more evident: Counterpoint estimates that global smartphone shipments fell 20% year over year in 3Q26, IDC estimates -22%; while IDC estimates that Apple shipments fell only 4% to 57.3 million units, and the share rose to 22.4% from 18.2% a year ago.
The average price rose by about 20% year over year, from three sources: demand focused on the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max (basic models are missing), the 18 Pro and Pro Max each increased by $100, and all models sold in the US (iPhone 16, 17e, 17 and iPhone Air) increased by $100. However, Goldman Sachs also pointed out a time difference — Apple was only able to reap the benefits of price increases for part of the quarter at F4Q26, but it has already begun to bear higher memory costs, which poses short-term gross profit pressure. The full quarterly price increase will not be realized until the December quarter.
Delivery: Pro is slightly soft, Pro Max can carry it, Duo has a waiting period of about 100 days in the first week
Goldman Sachs used its own Apple delivery tracker to give a cold set of numbers: 42 days after opening the subscription, the iPhone 18 Pro series had an average global delivery time of 24 days, down from 25 days in the same period of the iPhone 17 Pro series; and the decline was faster — the 18 Pro dropped from 22 days to 13 days after about 20 days, Pro Max dropped from 30 days to 24 days after about 27 days, while the iPhone 17 Pro Max took about 39 days during the same period. There is not much difference between the various colors.
Looking at the subregions, the US, the UK, India, and Japan generally had a slightly lower delivery time than the previous Pro series, with the notable exception of Hong Kong, China: the average delivery time increased from 18 days to 25 days for the previous generation. Goldman Sachs explains the price difference — the iPhone 18 Pro 256GB is about 10% cheaper in Hong Kong, and the Pro Max 2TB price difference widens to about 12.5%, which may bring some demand from mainland China. In turn, delivery times in mainland China have been shortened, and Goldman Sachs speculates that some demand is waiting for the iPhone Duo (folding screen) because mainland consumers are more familiar with folding screen phones.
However, early demand indicators were not bad: First, the delivery time of the 18 Pro Max was better than the 17 Pro Max as a whole, and higher than the 16 Pro Max; second, Counterpoint data showed that the 18 Pro series increased 12% year-on-year in the first week, accounting for 33% of smartphone sales in China during the quarter, and India's first-day sales growth rate was initially estimated to be +15% to +28%; third, according to Apple supply chain sources, Apple raised 18 Pro Max orders by 10 %— 15%, Duo orders increased by 30%, while 18 Pro orders were lowered by 10% to 15%. The total number of Pro series orders remained the same — the total volume remained the same, but the structure was skewed towards higher-priced models. On the first day of the iPhone Duo pre-order launch, the global average waiting period was about 100 days, which was basically the same across regions.
Goldman Sachs also clearly indicated that delivery times are not a complete mapping of demand, and will also be significantly affected by channel inventory and supply capacity, and current supply is still limited. Apple management anticipates that F4Q26 supply constraints will increase significantly from month to month, affecting iPhone, Mac, and iPad, mainly due to the production capacity of advanced nodes used in Apple's self-developed SoCs; other third party supply chains have reported that DRAM supply may delay assembly based on the A20 Pro model, and that the iPhone Duo's mass production yield is still below the maturity level.
In terms of affordability, US operator promotions are still supported: according to CIRP, carrier channels account for about 75% of US iPhone sales in the year up to July 2026; AT&T and T-Mobile provide up to $1,199 in trade-in subsidies, and eligible users can cover the starting price of the entire 18 Pro, reducing the actual incremental cost of the 18 Pro Max to about $99. Additionally, Apple and Klarna launched the Apple Upgrade Program in July, which allows the purchase price to be spread over 12 or 24 months.
Mac and iPad: Double-digit drop in shipments, hedged by June price increases
Mac is the biggest disagreement between Goldman Sachs and Consensus: Goldman Sachs estimated F4Q26 Mac revenue of $8.683 billion, the same year over year, while FactSet consensus was +12%. Goldman Sachs assumes a 12% year-over-year decline in shipments (IDC estimates -11%), offset by an average price of +13% YoY. Weak shipments are due to three aspects: the weakening of the PC market after 1H26 demand and inventory moved sharply forward, the increase in industry prices suppressed demand for terminals, and limited supply.
The support on the price side is very specific: Apple increased the average price of all Macs by about 18% in June 2026 - MacBook Neo from $599 to $699 (+17%), 13-inch MacBook Air from 1,099 to $1,299 (+18%), M5 MacBook Pro from 1,699 to $1,999 (+18%), M3 Ultra Mac Studio by 3,999 rose to $5,299 (+33%). Entering F2027, Goldman Sachs expects Mac revenue growth to accelerate to +15% (F2026 predicts +6%), due to a low base, annual price increases, new products such as the M6 MacBook Pro/M6 MacBook Air/second-generation MacBook Neo, and an increase in the share of the low-end (under $800) PC market segment.
In contrast, Goldman Sachs estimates F4Q26 revenue of $7.398 billion, up 6% year over year, higher than the consensus +1%: shipments fell 9% year over year, and the average price rose 17% year over year. The latter came from an average price increase of more than 20% (23% of the total listed average) in June — the entry-level iPad rose from $349 to $449 (+29%), and the 11-inch iPad Air from 599 to $749 (+25%). F2027 expects iPad revenue to grow +8%.
In terms of product pipelines, Goldman Sachs updated the tracking sheet after the “Welcome Home” press conference on October 13: HomeView (7-inch screen smart home hub, $299, open for pre-order on October 13, launch on November 13), next-generation Apple TV 4K, HomePod mini 2, and Home Collection smart home accessories (security camera, video doorbell, smart door lock developed in collaboration with LG Electronics and Schneider Electric) , thermostat), will be launched in December 2026 and early 2027. The rest of 2026 is expected to include the 8th generation iPad mini, M6 MacBook Pro, and an updated iMac.
Service business: +10% compared to the same period, but the engine has already changed gears
Goldman Sachs estimated F4Q26 service revenue of approximately US$31,521 billion, an increase of 10% over the previous year. Structurally, the engine has clearly changed gears: App Store increased by only 2% (accounting for about 24% of service revenue), TAC (Google search traffic acquisition cost share) of about $7.2 billion, up 11% (about 23%), while iCloud + 12%, AppleCare+ +19%, and subscription services +22%.
The App Store is one of the most interesting parts of the season. Goldman Sachs estimates its growth rate to drop further from +3% of F3Q26 to +2%. According to Sensor Tower data, C3Q26 App Store consumption increased 2% year over year (down from 3% of C2Q26), only +1% in July, remained flat in August, and rebounded to +5% in September; by region, the US (about 33%) fell 7% year on year (C2Q26 was -6%), China (about 20%) slowed to +8% (previously +10%), and Japan (about 10%) improved slightly to -2%. In addition to weakening basic consumption, Goldman Sachs believes there are also triple pressures: an increase in off-site payment options in the US, changes in the China/Japan/Brazil commission structure (previous estimates combined to form a headwind of about 5 percentage points), and macroeconomic fluctuations. By category, the growth rate of games (about 40%) and entertainment (about 15%) has slowed, while photos and videos (about 9%) have improved.
In the long run, Goldman Sachs expects Apple service revenue to maintain a compound annual growth rate of about 9% from 2026 to 2030, reaching $173 billion by F30; of these, advertising and others will grow at a compound rate of +14% to $69 billion, the largest source of growth. iCloud+ will increase to $19 billion, AppleCare+ to $18 billion, and first-party services to $30 billion, while the App Store's compound growth rate is only +4% to $34 billion. Three supporting logics: the resilience of Google TAC payments (Sensor Tower shows that the usage time and monthly activity of Chrome on iOS are basically stable), iCloud+ penetration rate increases as data volume and Apple Intelligence features improve, and AppleCare+ grows with device updates. Apple's August price increase for Apple TV will also contribute more as the attrition rate normalizes.
Apple TV itself: Goldman Sachs estimates F4Q26's revenue to be around $2.3 billion, up 33% year over year, with a net increase of 1 million for paid subscriptions; C3Q26 estimates that 86 original series will be released, with corresponding content amortization of about $756 million, and C4Q26 is expected to be around $610 million.
The fulcrum of F2027: new spring models, Duo switches, low base
Goldman Sachs's F2027 iPhone revenue growth rate was +7%, supported by five sources: the release of the basic iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and iPhone Air 2 in the spring of 2027; the replacement cycle was catalyzed by the iPhone Duo's new model; the low base after the F2H26 supply was limited; the annual revenue from price increases; and the support for affordability of high-end positioning, operator promotions, and Apple Upgrade. Goldman Sachs believes that in a context where rising memory prices continue to squeeze low- and middle-end phones, Apple's high-end positioning is a comparative advantage — IDC expects overall smartphone market growth to remain limited until 2027.
The valuation side is at the core of this increase. The target price was raised from $360 to $390, and the corresponding valuation multiplier was raised from 37 times to 40 times Goldman Sachs' “NTM+1Y” earnings per share. Goldman Sachs directly attributed the increase in confidence in the iPhone replacement cycle after the launch of Duo — not an increase in profit forecasts (F2026/27/28 earnings per share remained largely unchanged, at $8.89/9.16/9.76, respectively, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 39.1/38.0/35.6 times).
In terms of investment arguments, Goldman Sachs's logic is that the market's focus on the slowdown in hardware revenue growth has overshadowed the resilience and visibility of Apple's ecosystem and service revenue; the increase in installed capacity, structural growth in services, and new product innovation should be able to offset cyclical headwinds such as lengthening switching cycles and weakening demand for PCs and tablets; most of the gross profit growth over the next five years will come from services, which forms an inflection point in the “Apple-as-a-Service” narrative.
There are five key risks: weakening consumer demand (iPhone accounts for about 50% of F2025 revenue and is highly dependent on upgrades), supply chain disruptions (the main final assembly is still in China, and some key components are dependent on a few suppliers), increased competition (not every business line of Apple is number one, such as video streaming media invests less content than some of its rivals), regulatory risks (all major markets face intense regulatory scrutiny and may be required to open their own products or services), and capital allocation execution (returns from mergers and acquisitions are uncertain and may face more stringent requirements) regulation). Additionally, Goldman Sachs mentioned that Apple's F2025 returned more than $110 billion to shareholders, which is expected to expand as free cash flow grows; the company directed the F4Q26 exchange rate to bring about 2.5 percentage points of month-on-month headwind (implied -1.5%), which is lower than the implied level of Goldman Sachs's spot exchange rate model.