WD-40 (WDFC) just released a busy earnings update, combining fourth quarter and full year 2026 results with fresh 2027 guidance that indicates a focus on higher sales and profit, along with an update on its ongoing share repurchase activity.
At a share price of US$216.06, WD-40 has logged a 1-month share price return of 8.48% and a year to date share price gain of 9.81%, while the 1-year total shareholder return of 12.72% contrasts with a 3-month share price decline of 5.79%. This pattern hints that recent earnings, guidance, the Duluth Trading collaboration and progress on buybacks have refreshed momentum after a softer patch.
Capitalize on the fresh momentum around WD-40 by scanning a curated shortlist of other quality companies with resilient earnings profiles in our 30 resilient stocks with low risk scores.Bulls see WD-40 as a quality compounder back on track, while bears point to richer expectations after the rebound. Which case holds up once the valuation is unpacked next?
Most Popular Narrative: 20.5% Undervalued
At a last close of $216.06, the most followed narrative for WD-40 points to a fair value of $271.67, implying meaningful upside once those assumptions are stress tested against the actual cash generation and market size.
The main thing that has to go right is for WD-40 to execute on premiumization of its Multi-Use Product and growth of Specialist lines and e-commerce while managing higher petroleum-based input costs so that margins remain resilient.
See why 9 investors see WD-40 as 20% undervalued.
Using a 7.24% discount rate, this narrative anchors on mid single digit annual revenue growth, an 11.49% long run profit margin and a P/E of 47.2x on projected 2029 earnings, which is well above the 22.0x level cited for the wider US household products group. The result is a fair value estimate of $271.67 per share, compared with the current market capitalization of about $2.9b and analysts in broad agreement that the share price could move higher if those earnings and margin paths materialize.
The same storyline leans heavily on WD-40’s remaining headroom in its estimated $1.9b attainable maintenance market, the relatively low penetration of premium formats such as Smart Straw and EZ-REACH in emerging regions, and Specialist products that currently touch only around 12% of their addressable category. E-commerce, which is running at under 10% of revenue but growing a little above 20% year to date, is treated as a further lever for mix, pricing power and return on equity. Return on equity is already assessed as high at 30.2% today and is forecast to reach 35.2% in 3 years.
Risks inside the same framework are not ignored, including pressure on gross margin from higher petroleum based inputs and a homecare and cleaning portfolio that now represents less than 2% of sales yet trims about 40 basis points from consolidated gross margin while gently shrinking. A key swing factor is how long the market is willing to pay a premium multiple, since a shift closer to the 16.8x to 22.0x P/E ranges cited for peers and the US household products industry could compress the share price even if earnings follow the current forecast path.
Result: Fair Value of $271.67 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the WD-40 narrative can crack if higher petroleum based input costs squeeze margins longer than expected, or if the premium P/E multiple fades faster than earnings grow.
Find out about the key risks to this WD-40 narrative.
Another View: WD-40 On Earnings Multiples
That fair value story for WD-40 runs straight into a very different signal from simple P/E math. The stock trades on 35.2x earnings, compared with 16.8x for the global household products group, 18.3x for peers and a fair ratio of 15.5x that the market could move toward. That gap points to valuation risk rather than a clear edge. How comfortable are you paying more than double the sector on this earnings profile?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
Sentiment on WD-40 is split, which is exactly why looking at the underlying data yourself can be so powerful. To see what optimistic investors are focusing on, start with the 3 key rewards.
Looking for more WD-40 style investment ideas?
You have seen how investors are weighing WD-40. Now widen your opportunity set by using focused stock lists that surface different edges in the market.
- Target potential mispricings by scanning a curated pool of quality companies that screens for valuation support through the 29 high quality undervalued stocks.
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