The Zhitong Finance App has learned that Europe and East Asia will experience a cold wave next week. The energy market is already tight due to high prices and competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. This cold wave will test market resilience ahead of time. Starting this weekend, the average temperature in large parts of mainland Europe will be 2 to 3 degrees Celsius below normal. Meanwhile, a cold wave is expected to sweep through northeastern China, Japan, and South Korea, and the average temperature in some regions will be 5 degrees Celsius below normal.
The two cold waves overlap in time, but last for a short time, and will still be an early stress test for the electricity and energy markets. Although the strong El Niño phenomenon is expected to cause an overall warmer winter in the northern hemisphere, brief cold waves will also have an impact on energy prices.
On Monday, Europe's benchmark gas futures price surpassed €97 per megawatt hour for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis, while the region's gas stocks were only 75% full, below the normal seasonal level of 90%.
Andrew Pedrini (Andrew Pedrini), meteorologist Andrew Pedrini (Andrew Pedrini), said that entering the winter season, the market's biggest concern is probably “the simultaneous occurrence of cold weather in multiple regions with high energy demand.”
According to models from the European Center for Medium-Term Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and analysis from government and commercial forecasters, Europe's cooling is expected to begin this week in France and Germany. The weather in the Mediterranean and Balkans is already unusually cold.
According to ECMWF data, the temperature in Paris is expected to be 2.7 degrees Celsius lower than normal on Saturday, and the minimum temperature will drop to 4 degrees Celsius. The temperature in Munich will be slightly above freezing.
According to MetDesk weather models and analysis, wind power generation in northwestern Europe is expected to decline starting in the middle of this week, and the slump in power generation will continue until next week.
Atmospheric G2 meteorologist Takahisa Nishikawa (Takahisa Nishikawa) said that the biggest abnormal temperatures in Asia are expected to occur in northern China and northern Japan, and the average temperature in these regions will be more than 5 degrees Celsius below the seasonal average. He added that widespread snowfall is expected in northern China, which could push up heating demand while curbing solar power generation.
“Although these cold waves are expected to be relatively brief, they may provide an early test of East Asia's energy needs,” he said. As the cold wave hit, China's coal prices were at a three-year high.
This cold tide will be driven by a high-pressure system located above the Urals, which causes rapids to sink southward, causing cold air to flow into East Asia.
Nishikawa said that although the El Niño phenomenon, which is currently approaching the highest level in history, is expected to cause relatively mild winter temperatures in Asia, there is still a risk of strong and brief cold tides. He pointed out that the strong El Niño phenomenon in 2023-2024 caused abnormally low temperatures many times in Japan.