Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

COHU reports after market close, meaning Day 0 captures anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 represents the first full session where the market digests actual results.

Historical price action around earnings shows significant volatility, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 5.42% and Day +1 move of 4.54%. The most recent Q2 2026 report triggered the largest reaction in the dataset, with an 18.07% surge on Day 0 and continued strength into Day +1. This dramatic move reflected both the magnitude of the earnings beat and relief that the company had returned to profitability.

Looking at the broader pattern, Day 0 moves have ranged from -5.90% to +18.07%, while Day +1 moves span -6.71% to +9.75%, indicating that COHU can move sharply in either direction depending on results and guidance. The average Day 0 range of 5.78% and Day +1 range of 11.76% suggest substantial intraday volatility as traders react to the numbers.

Notably, the stock's reaction doesn't always align with earnings surprises—Q4 2025's massive miss produced only a 2.26% Day 0 gain, while Q1 2026's modest miss led to a 5.90% Day 0 gain followed by a -3.72% Day +1 decline. This suggests guidance and forward commentary often matter more than the headline number. Investors should prepare for a potential double-digit percentage move given the stock's recent volatility and the importance of this report in confirming the recovery narrative.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing an expected move of 16.26% (±$8.29) for the November expiration, which is substantially higher than the historical average Day 0 move of 5.42% and even exceeds the combined two-day average move. This elevated implied volatility of 93.38% suggests options traders are anticipating a particularly significant reaction—likely reflecting uncertainty about whether Q2's recovery can be sustained and what management will say about the outlook for 2027.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analyst sentiment on COHU is decidedly bullish, with a consensus rating of 4.67 out of 5.0 ("Moderate Buy") and an average price target of $71.56—implying 40% upside from the current price of $50.98. The rating distribution shows strong conviction, with 7 Strong Buy ratings, 1 Moderate Buy, 1 Hold, and zero Sell ratings among the 9 analysts covering the stock.

The consensus has remained unchanged over the past month, with the same 7-1-1 split maintained, suggesting analysts are holding their positive views heading into the earnings release. Price targets range from a low of $65 to a high of $80, with the mean target of $71.56 representing significant appreciation potential if the company can demonstrate sustainable recovery.

The bullish stance reflects analyst confidence in the semiconductor equipment recovery cycle and COHU's positioning within it. Following the Q2 beat, multiple firms raised targets substantially—B. Riley to $69, Needham to $65, and both Jefferies and Craig Hallum to $74—indicating that even after the stock's rally, analysts see further upside. However, the single Hold rating (likely from the analyst who downgraded from Strong Buy in August) suggests some concern about valuation or near-term momentum after the sharp move higher. The 40% implied upside to the consensus target provides a meaningful cushion, but also sets a high bar for the stock to meet expectations without strong results and confident guidance.

Part 4: Technical Picture

The technical picture heading into earnings shows deteriorating momentum despite the stock trading above its 200-day moving average. The Barchart Technical Opinion currently registers a 24% Buy signal, down sharply from 40% Buy last week and 88% Buy last month, indicating a significant weakening in technical strength over the past 30 days.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal suggests near-term momentum has weakened considerably from the strong readings seen after the Q2 earnings beat
• Medium-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal indicates consolidation in the intermediate timeframe as the stock digests recent gains
• Long-term (Hold): Neutral reading reflects uncertainty about whether the recovery trend can be sustained over the longer term

Trend Characteristics: The trend is characterized as Weak with the Weakest direction, indicating that technical momentum has deteriorated significantly and the path of least resistance may be lower in the near term.

The stock currently trades at $50.98, positioned above the 5-day moving average of $49.87 and the 200-day moving average of $46.75, but below all other key moving averages—the 10-day ($51.99), 20-day ($60.70), 50-day ($57.20), and 100-day ($56.81). This configuration suggests the stock has pulled back from recent highs and is testing support levels.

The technical setup presents a cautionary picture heading into earnings. After rallying to $75.72 in the wake of Q2 results, COHU has retreated nearly 16% from those highs, with the stock now trading below most key moving averages. The 20-day moving average at $60.70 represents significant overhead resistance, while the 200-day at $46.75 provides support. The sharp deterioration in the Barchart Opinion from 88% Buy to just 24% Buy over the past month suggests technical traders have turned increasingly skeptical. With the stock below its 50-day moving average and momentum indicators weakening, COHU will need strong results and confident guidance to break out of this consolidation pattern. The elevated options-implied move of 16.26% suggests the market is bracing for a significant reaction—and the technical damage from a disappointment could be substantial given the already weakened momentum.