Freeport-McMoRan just posted Q3 2026 results that landed with more bite than the modest 1.2% share price rise might suggest. The stock came into today after cooling off a recent run, down about 4.2% over the past week and roughly 8.8% over the past month, so expectations were not stretched in the very short term.
The real story is the earnings power behind that muted reaction. Basic earnings per share reached about US$0.81 and net income hit roughly US$1.17b, with copper driven operations showing clear margin strength. The market’s move looks cautious compared with that profitability step up.
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Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
- Revenue (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): US$7,546m vs. US$6,972m (up about 8.2%)
- Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): US$1,174m vs. US$667m (up about 76.0%)
- Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): US$0.81 vs. US$0.46 (up about 75.4%)
- Copper Production (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): 356,523.60 tons vs. 413,676.24 tons (down about 13.8%)
Earnings are the headline, but investors who care about what they are paying for often focus on the cash coming through the door and how durable those inflows look. When you line up Freeport-McMoRan's cash flows against the current share price, the stock could be a whopping 33% undervalued.
Freeport-McMoRan’s Growth Story Meets Real Project Progress
The upbeat copper narrative around Freeport-McMoRan leans heavily on execution at leach, brownfield and Indonesian projects rather than just price optimism.
"Bullish analysts expect Freeport-McMoRan to compound low-capex copper production growth from leaching, brownfield expansions, and Indonesian integration into higher cash generation over the next several years."
Q3 points in that direction. Grasberg ramped to 67% of mine capacity, with a path laid out toward higher levels through 2027. Management kept 2026 unit cash cost guidance at US$1.90 per pound and reported copper and gold production broadly in line with plans. Leach volumes are already contributing, and Bagdad 2X moved toward a Q4 2026 final investment decision with permits in place.
That disagreement has a full argument behind it. → Uncover the higher Fair Value this Narrative argues for.
Freeport-McMoRan: Costs And Capex Still On Trial
Bearish investors worry that Freeport-McMoRan’s higher spend and input inflation will not be earned back through future cash generation.
"Bearish analysts expect Freeport-McMoRan to struggle to earn its higher capital and operating costs back if input inflation persists, Grasberg execution issues recur, and regulatory pressures on copper and alternative materials continue to build."
Q3 shows part of that concern still alive. Grasberg is only at 67% of capacity and 2026 and 2027 copper sales guidance has been trimmed, so volume ramps are slipping versus earlier plans. Rising Bagdad capital of about US$4.5b and higher 2027 capex guidance also support the concern that heavier spend and timelines remain a key execution hurdle, even alongside stronger Q3 profitability.
Hunt Disconnects Before They Close
Freeport-McMoRan just showed how strong quarterly numbers and a muted share move can sit side by side. The real opportunity could sit in stocks that look mispriced before markets close the gap.
- Company 1 - 23% below our estimate - uses surgical robotics and smart care tools to shift more complex procedures toward its platforms.
- Company 2 - 31% below our estimate - sells the GPUs and software stack that data center customers rely on to scale AI clusters.
- Company 3 - 15% below our estimate - wins hyperscale data center electrical projects as customers rush to add power and capacity.
Those are three of them. See all 29 potentially undervalued companies →
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