The Zhitong Finance App learned that, overall, Guojin Securities released a research report saying that overall, there is still a large net outflow of leveraged capital represented by the two financings, but with the rebound last Friday, the guarantee ratio has recovered. Corresponsively, stock ETFs are still the main supporting force in the market, and the market phase may still face repeated transactions. In the future, we still need to pay attention to whether the two financing funds can gradually return steadily and the continuity of the return of other participants.
Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:
Macro liquidity: The US dollar index declined slightly last week, and the degree of “inversion” of the China-US dollar spread continued to subside. Nominal and real interest rates on 10Y US bonds continued to fall, and inflation expectations declined slightly. Offshore dollar liquidity margins have been tightened, the overall capital balance between domestic banks is uneven, and term spreads (10Y-1Y) have narrowed.
Trading popularity, volatility and liquidity: The popularity of market transactions has rebounded slightly, and the volatility of major indices has continued to rise. The popularity of transactions in the media, banking and other sectors is above the 80% quantile. The fluctuation rate in the communications and electronics sectors is above the 80% quantile.
Institutional research: The electronics, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous, food and beverage, and communications sectors are the most popular, while the popularity of research in the steel, pharmaceuticals, machinery, non-ferrous, and computer sectors has picked up month-on-month.
Analysts forecast: All A's net profit forecast for 26/27 was lowered at the same time. In the industry, net profit forecasts for consumer services, electronics, chemicals, computers, textiles, etc. for 26/27 have all been raised. On the index, the 26/27 net profit forecast for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 was raised, while the GEM Index, China Securities 500, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 were all lowered. Stylistically, net profit forecasts for mid/small market growth and mid-market value for 26/27 have all been raised, while market growth and large/small market values have all been lowered.
Northbound activity picked up, and a net purchase of A-shares was once again
Based on the top 10 active stocks, the ratio of total trading volume in the telecommunications, banking, food and beverage sectors increased, while the ratio of total trading volume in the building materials, communications, and machinery sectors declined. Based on the target size of Kitakami's shareholding of less than 30 million shares: Last week, Kitakami mainly made net purchases in the electronics, computer, machinery and other sectors, and only net sold the construction and home appliances sectors. Overall, it is likely that North China will mainly buy electronics, computers, pharmaceuticals, electronics, non-ferrous products, etc. on a net basis.
The activity of the two finance companies has rebounded slightly, but it is still at a low level since late September 2024
Last week, Liangrong continued to have net sales of 57.046 billion yuan. In the industry, Liangrong continued to net sell various sectors. Among them, the electronics, communications, and telecommunications sectors were mainly net sold. The share of financing purchases in the construction, communications, trade and retail sectors has rebounded. In terms of style, Liangrong continued to net sell various style segments.
The popularity of Dragon Tiger trading continues to decline
The total trading volume of Dragon Tiger List continued to decline last week, and the ratio of total sales volume of Dragon Tiger List to total A turnover also declined somewhat. At the industry level, sectors such as home appliances, computers, and machinery account for a relatively high share of total sales volume on the Dragon Tiger List and are still rising.
Active bias fund positions rebounded slightly, and stock ETFs continued to return sharply
Based on the secondary planning method, after excluding rising and falling factors, active partial equity funds mainly increased positions in the telecommunications, real estate, banking and other sectors last week, mainly in the machinery, military, and computer sectors. Stylistically, the correlation between active partial equity funds and large/mid-market growth has increased, and the correlation with small market growth and large/medium/small market value has declined. The size of newly established equity funds rebounded last week, and the scale of active/passive new start-ups both rebounded. Stock ETFs continued to be heavily purchased last week, and institutional ETFs were the main ones. Judging from the ETF tracking index, ETFs such as the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, GEM Index, and Science Innovation 50 were mainly net purchased. Looking at the ETF spin-off industry, stock ETFs continue to make net purchases in various sectors. Among them, sectors such as TMT, Telecom, and financial real estate are the main net purchases. It is worth noting that, on the one hand, the activity of the two financiers rebounded slightly but continued to sell sharply, while capital from the North China market returned. Corresponsively, active equity fund positions rebounded slightly, while stock ETFs continued to be purchased substantially. On the other hand, the buying consensus of ETFs and Kitakami, and the buying consensus of the two loans and the Dragon Tiger List respectively rebounded and declined last week. Overall, there is still a large net outflow of leveraged capital represented by the two loans, but with the rebound last Friday and the guarantee ratio has been repaired. Corresponsively, stock ETFs are still the main supporting force in the market, and both northbound and active equity funds have returned in stages, and the market stage may still face repeated transactions. In the future, we still need to pay attention to whether the two financing funds can gradually stabilize and the continuity of the return of other participants.
Risk warning: calculation error.