The Zhitong Finance App learned that on the last trading day (October 27), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.33% to 3648.30 points, the Shenzhen Securities Index fell 2.50% to 11245.73 points, and the GEM index fell 3.41% to 2548.15 points; the turnover of the two markets was 1842,541 billion yuan; 606 individual stocks rose, 4922 fell, closed 49, up and down 2.
Cathay Pacific Haitong Securities believes that the chemical debt package has come to an end, hidden debt risks have been drastically mitigated, and the fiscal focus is shifting towards steady growth; Guojin Securities believes that the two loans continue to have large net outflows, and stock ETFs are still the main supporting force, and the market stage may face repeated transactions; Huafu Securities believes that the profit margin of the three-quarter report continues to be repaired and the structure is optimized simultaneously; Huayuan Securities believes that the expected suppression of coal supply and bottom-side support coexist, and concerns coexist The pace at which nuclear increases in production capacity are being realized.
Cathay Pacific Haitong: The debt package has come to an end, the fiscal focus is shifting to steady growth, and the central government's leveraging expectations are heating up
The phased results of the chemical debt package introduced in 2024 are close to being exhausted, the risk of hidden debt stock has been greatly mitigated, and a large number of financing platforms have achieved market-based exit; urban investment financing has moved from high-cost bonds and non-standard bonds to bank credit. Financing costs have declined, debt has been prolonged for a long time, and short-term liquidity risks have been significantly mitigated.
Debt conversion has entered the next stage: financial replacement debt can only cover hidden debt. The operating debt pressure on larger urban investment platforms has yet to be digested. Platform interest expenses remain high, stock debt is rolling back on refinancing, and the focus of chemical debt will shift to cleaning up government arrears and platform transformation. The current supply of government bonds is characterized by “new dominance, special efforts, and shrinking refinancing”. Fiscal spending favors infrastructure while securing people's livelihood; looking ahead to next year, the pace of fiscal strength is expected to advance significantly. If exports slow down and domestic demand needs to be boosted, it is more likely that the central government will continue to increase leverage to play a countercyclical adjustment role.
Guojin Securities: The two financings continued to have large net outflows, and stock ETFs are still the main supporting force in the market
The net outflow of leveraged capital represented by the two financings continued, but with the rebound last Friday, the maintenance guarantee ratio has recovered; stock ETFs are still the main supporting force in the market, and there is a phased return of capital from North China and active partial equity funds. The market stage may still face repeated transactions. Follow-up attention will be paid to whether the two financing funds can gradually stabilize and the continuation of the return of other participants.
Huafu Securities: The profit margin of the three-quarter report continues to recover, and the dominant manufacturing chain resonates with volume and profit
As of October 26, the profitability of 1,695 A-share listed companies that have disclosed three quarterly reports continued to recover: revenue increased 13.77% year over year, net profit to mother increased 22.48% year over year, and net interest rate rose 0.62 percentage points. The growth was not simply a large-scale expansion, but was driven by scale expansion, upward product structure, and profit resilience.
The four advantageous manufacturing chains of non-ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment, and basic chemicals all resonate with increasing volume, profit improvement, and improving profitability. Among the 99 other companies that have issued performance forecasts, those with high standards increase are concentrated in electronics industry chains such as semiconductors, PCBs, optical chips, and AI computing power, further strengthening the performance certainty of the main booming manufacturing line.
Huayuan Securities: Demand for physical AI data is expanding, and Ego data is expected to take the lead in scaling
One of the current bottlenecks of physical AI is the lack of high-quality real-world interaction data that can be continuously scaled, and the scaling potential of Ego (first-person perspective) data has been initially verified. On the industrial technology route, the four types of data, Ego, UMI, robot body, and simulation synthesis, are worth paying attention to; it is expected that short-term Ego data demand will grow more elastic, and the importance of medium- to long-term real machines and high-precision multi-modal data will continue to increase.
Companies with 3D space reconstruction, motion trajectory extraction, physical simulation, and data closed-loop capabilities are expected to further enhance the added value of data. The business model may extend from traditional data collection to high-quality data assets and training infrastructure, and Ego Data is expected to take the lead in large-scale expansion.
SDIC Securities: The Electricity and Coal Presidents Association has implemented the rule of law, and high coal price support coexists with the suppression of nuclear growth expectations
On October 23, the Development and Reform Commission issued Order No. 50, upgrading the Electricity and Coal Association from an annual policy to a legalized system (implemented in December 2026), establishing a unified three-type energy contract framework, a contract period of at least 1 year, a “benchmark price+floating price” or monthly adjustment mechanism for production areas, and strictly controlling resale to provide long-term institutional guarantees for calming irrational fluctuations in coal prices.
As of October 26, the spot price of 5,500 kcal in Qingang reached 1,032 yuan/ton, deviating from the upper limit of the Changxie reasonable range by about 33%. The essence of this round of nuclear increase in production capacity is compliance with hidden stock overproduction. The expected level suppresses irrational price increases before winter storage, but it is difficult to cause a substantial supply impact in the short term. In 2026, the supply and demand gap for thermal coal and coking coal was 78.57 million tons and 15.47 million tons, respectively, supporting the price center to remain high. Looking ahead to 2027, the supply and demand pattern will tend to be relaxed as production resumes and nuclear growth is realized, and the price center faces downward pressure, but there is limited room for overall decline.