The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shen Wan Hongyuan released a research report saying that it is recommended to focus on two main lines: 1) PV installations are continuously corrected in a single month, and the industry is shifting from “scale dividends” to “profit dividends.” In September, PV added 13.64 GW, a year-on-year increase of 41%, with positive year-on-year growth for two consecutive months. Combined collection and cashing during the peak construction season led to a recovery in delivery; in the context of yield revaluation, inverters and energy storage taps with synergetic advantages of overseas channels and optical storage were more resilient; 2) The cumulative installed capacity of scenery exceeded 2 billion kilowatts, and consumption and regulation resources just needed to continue to increase. By the end of September, the proportion of installed wind power had risen to 48.7% of the country's total installed capacity, but the average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 194 hours over the same period last year, and midday consumption and power limit pressures were concentrated, putting higher demands on flexible resources such as UHV, main distribution network transformation, and energy storage.
Shen Wan Hongyuan's main views are as follows:
Event: On October 26, the National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for January to September 2026
By the end of September 2026, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 4.13 billion kilowatts, an increase of 11.2% over the previous year. Among them, the installed capacity of wind power was 700 million kilowatts, up 20.4% year on year; the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was 1.31 billion kilowatts, up 16.5% year on year. The total installed capacity of Scenery reached 2,013 billion kilowatts, surpassing 2 billion kilowatts for the first time, accounting for 48.7% of the country's total installed capacity of power generation, and the share of new energy installations continued to increase.
In September, the new installed capacity of Scenery increased by more than 60% year on year, and the monthly PV growth rate continued to correct
In September 2026, wind power and photovoltaics added 7.40 GW and 13.64 GW respectively, up 128% and 41% year on year, respectively. The total scenery added 21.04 GW, an increase of 63% year on year. Among them, the installed capacity of photovoltaics increased by 24% in a single month compared to August, and has achieved positive year-on-year growth for two consecutive months; the pace of wind power delivery and grid connection accelerated during the peak construction season, and doubled year-on-year growth in a single month. The overall landscape was added and returned to high growth channels, and the pace of project construction improved markedly marginally.
The high base for the same period in 2025 was a core factor in the cumulative decline in installed capacity
From January to September 2026, the total number of new wind power and photovoltaics installed capacity was 60.66 GW and 110.83 GW, respectively. Wind power remained basically the same year on year, and photovoltaics decreased by 53.9% year on year. The concentrated rush to install in 2025 formed an abnormally high base, causing year-on-year data pressure for the first three quarters, which does not mean that installed demand for the whole year has shrunk by the same margin; as the impact of the high base gradually subsides, the installed capacity growth rate is expected to continue to improve in the future.
Risk warning: demand for scenery falls short of expectations, power equipment price restoration falls short of expectations, and the commencement progress of UHV and energy storage projects falls short of expectations