The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Alimak Group AB (publ) (STO:ALIG), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. Alimak Group missed earnings this time around, with kr1.8b revenue coming in 2.5% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of kr1.41 also fell short of expectations by 19%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Alimak Group after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Alimak Group's three analysts is for revenues of kr7.94b in 2027. This would reflect a notable 15% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 50% to kr8.06. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr7.99b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr8.43 in 2027. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
See our latest analysis for Alimak Group
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr153, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Alimak Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr165 and the most bearish at kr135 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Alimak Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2027 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 13% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 8.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that Alimak Group is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Alimak Group. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr153, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Alimak Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Alimak Group that you need to take into consideration.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.