According to Woofun AI, there has been a strategic shift in the Bitcoin derivatives market. Glassnode monitoring data shows that for the first time since March 2026, the Bitcoin giant whale on the Hyperliquid platform has switched from bulls to net shorting. This rare sign marks a shift in market sentiment from optimism to prudence.
According to Woofun AI on-chain data, Glassnode revealed in an October 27 post that the large Hyperliquid players it is tracking held long positions when the price hit the bottom, turned net shorting last week, and sold when it was close to $80,000. This operation may not only indicate a deep correction, but also cause a risk of emptying when the price rebounds. In an earlier October 21 “Swept and Refilled” weekly report, Glassnode indicated that after the order group around $80,000 was digested on October 15, the main liquidation range was around $85,000 and $87,000. If the short selling contract is forced to close, the price may accelerate to the $87,000 range.
Meanwhile, the spot market had clusters of sell orders between $86,500 and $87,500, while the heatmap at the bottom of the order book showed a liquidation range of around $79,600. Furthermore, the average cost for investors holding between 6 and 12 months was approximately $86,700, and Glassnode's “real market average” indicator was worth approximately $77,600 on the day, reflecting a significant difference between the long-term holders' cost base and current market prices. The same weekly report also showed that the net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs on October 19 was 653 million US dollars, the largest single-day inflow since September 22; in addition, MSCI will announce the exclusion list on November 11 and close on November 30, and Strategy may be eliminated.
The Hyperliquid protocol's funding rate mechanism adds complexity to the market game. Its perpetual contract funding rate is settled every hour, with a fixed interest rate of 0.00125% (0.01% calculated over 8 hours), and a premium based on the price difference between perpetual contracts and spot oracles. The network validator collects price data every five seconds to calculate the average hourly premium. When the interest rate is correct, the bulls pay the bears to the long side. In terms of institutional trends, Lookonchain records show that from October 1 to 23, market maker Wintermute transferred 9,458 bitcoins to 40 new addresses, with a total value of 771.5 million US dollars. This act is regarded as attracting funds, but the exact holder is unknown.
According to Onchain Lens's September report, addresses associated with Wintermute hold short selling positions worth $126.25 million on Hyperliquid, including $46.92 million in Ethereum contracts, $11.3 million in Solana contracts, and $10.3 million in HYPE token contracts. The rest are contracts in other currencies. Wintermute did not publicly respond to this. Generally, such operations are aimed at hedging Spot inventory or cross-platform risk.
At the macro level, Lacie Zhang, head of the Bitget wallet research department, emphasized in the October 1 analysis that the overall forecast range was $78,000 to $95,000, of which $82,000 is the key support level and $87,500 is the trigger point for a rebound. If the price continues to fall below $80,000, the technical trend pattern for the month will fail. The Federal Reserve's schedule has further exacerbated market uncertainty. The next monetary policy decision will be announced on October 28. This point may be a catalyst for breaking the current long and short stalemate. Market participants need to carefully balance the risk of key support levels failing and potential shortfall.