According to the relevant outlook of the Chung Lian manufacturer's forecasting team, in 2027, with the reverse restoration of short-term impact factors, easing of cost pressure, and an increase in supply-side product power, the domestic car market is expected to bottom out and pick up if the policy and environment do not change beyond expectations. The domestic retail sales growth range is expected to be 0% to 5%, with an average value of 2%, and the car market differentiation will continue to intensify. Taken together, the deep decline in the automobile market in 2026 is the result of a combination of reversible short-term factors such as policy overruns, oil price shocks, AI cost spillover, and low consumer intent. The pattern of long-term cabinet shocks and gradual upward breakthroughs has not changed. The estimated domestic retail location of 18.5 million vehicles in 2026 is already at an “abnormal” low level. In 2027, the trailing effect of the car purchase tax, the Spring Festival, the return in oil prices, and the fall in lithium carbonate formed a double recovery on the demand side and the cost side. The weakening of inventory and the restoration of the new car supply cycle provided support from the supply side. The direction of the car market bottoming out and recovering is quite clear.

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