The Zhitong Finance App learned that from October 1 to 25, the passenger car market retailed 1.145 million vehicles in the national passenger car market, down 26% from the same period in October last year and 0% up from the same period last month. Since this year, retail sales have accumulated 14.479 million vehicles, a decrease of 22% over the previous year.
In terms of wholesale by manufacturers, from October 1 to 25, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 1.384 million vehicles, down 22% from the same period in October last year, up 3% from the same period last month. Since this year, a total of 21.121 million vehicles have been sold, a year-on-year decrease of 7%.
In terms of new energy, from October 1 to 25, the national passenger car market retailed 753,000 new energy vehicles, down 13% from the same period in October last year, down 1% from the same period last month, with cumulative retail sales of 8.511 million units since this year, down 13% year on year; from October 1 to 25, passenger car manufacturers sold 1.08,000 new energy vehicles, up 3% from the same period last month, up 6% from the same period last month. Since this year, 12.458 million vehicles have been sold, up 9% year on year.
Penetration rate: From October 1 to 25, the penetration rate of new energy retail sales in the national passenger car market was 65.7%; from October 1 to 25, the penetration rate of new energy wholesale by passenger car manufacturers nationwide was 72.9%.
Production: From the first to the fourth week of October, the country produced 386,000 pure fuel light vehicles, down 52% from the same period in October last year, down 1% from the same period last month; in the first to four weeks of October, overall production of hybrid and plug-in hybrids was 397,000 units, down 21% from the same period last year, up 20% from the same period last month.
Retail sales trend in the national passenger car market in October 2026
In the first week of October, the national passenger car market sold an average of 33,000 vehicles per day, down 25% from the same period in October last year, and down 10% from the same period last month.
In the second week of October, the national passenger car market sold an average of 58,000 vehicles per day, down 22% from the same period in October last year, and up 32% from the same period last month.
In the third week of October, the national passenger car market sold 47,000 vehicles per day, down 29% from the same period in October last year and 5% from the same period last month.
In the fourth week of October, the national passenger car market sold an average of 51,000 vehicles per day, down 26% from the same period last October and 5% from the same period last month.
From October 1 to 25, the national passenger car market retailed 1.145 million vehicles, down 26% from the same period in October last year and up 0% from the same period last month. Since this year, retail sales have accumulated 14.479 million units, a decrease of 22% over the previous year.
Since the Mid-Autumn Festival is in late September, during the traditional “golden nine silver ten” consumption season, the effective sales period in October was longer, and terminal passenger traffic continued to pick up slightly.
International fuel prices continue to be high, vehicle costs are high, and fuel vehicle consumption exceeds expectations and is sluggish. The increase in consumer first purchases has been temporarily blocked, and replacement stocks have become an important support for steady growth. The high-end is already in the Red Sea, and the opportunities in the car market are the popularity of the middle and low end. Due to recent weak sales performance in the North and Midwest, the fuel vehicle base that rebounded in October has been damaged. It is difficult for retail sales to strengthen in the winter that began in October, and the desire to reserve stocks early is not strong.
The increase in the car market in October was driven by the National Day Auto Show, local subsidies, and peak season promotions for car companies, etc., and the recovery in the car market was relatively moderate. Recent leading events in industry public opinion may have led to new doubts and waits about users' confidence in the overall NEV products, which is not conducive to promoting transactions in October.
Wholesale sales trend of national passenger car manufacturers in October 2026
In the first week of October, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 21,000 vehicles per day, down 32% from the same period last October and 44% from the same period last month.
In the second week of October, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold an average of 60,000 vehicles per day, down 7% from the same period in October last year, and up 23% from the same period last month.
In the third week of October, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 67,000 vehicles per day, a decrease of 22% compared to the same period in October last year, and an increase of 11% over the same period last month.
In the fourth week of October, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 76,000 vehicles per day, down 24% from the same period in October last year, and up 14% from the same period last month.
From October 1 to 25, passenger car manufacturers across the country wholesale 1.384 million vehicles, a decrease of 22% compared to the same period in October last year, and an increase of 3% over the same period last month; a total of 21.121 million vehicles have been sold since this year, down 7% from the previous year.
In previous years, the “Golden Nine, Silver, Ten” fuel vehicles were able to get the cake. The peak winter sales period has weakened sharply this year due to high fuel prices. High fuel prices led to an overall slump in manufacturer sales. Wholesale sales of fuel vehicle manufacturers fell 52% in the first four weeks. As retail sales of fuel vehicles continued to drop sharply, judging from environmental data, domestic demand for fuel vehicles production declined significantly in October. Most NEV brands currently lack popular models, but manufacturers also need a stable production pace. As a huge industrial chain system, it is impossible to simply schedule production according to orders, and production and sales targets must also be considered, so there is a big gap between external estimated order data and the actual sales of the company. Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has dropped dramatically, which is beneficial to the price reduction on the battery side. Along with the adjustment trend of NEV export tax rebates, and increased export trade restrictions next year, it is conducive to improving NEV export grabbing in the fourth quarter.
Domestic auto market retail sales are expected to grow 2% in 2027
Looking ahead to 2027, China's manufacturer forecasting team believes that with the reverse recovery of short-term impact factors, easing of cost pressure, and supply-side product strength improvement, if policies and environment do not change beyond expectations, the domestic car market is expected to bottom out. The domestic retail sales growth range is expected to be 0% to 5%, with an average value of 2%, and the car market differentiation will continue to intensify.
Taken together, the deep decline in the automobile market in 2026 is the result of a combination of reversible short-term factors such as policy overruns, oil price shocks, AI cost spillover, and low consumer intent. The pattern of long-term cabinet shocks and gradual upward breakthroughs has not changed. The estimated domestic retail location of 18.5 million vehicles in 2026 is already at an “abnormal” low level. In 2027, the trailing effect of the car purchase tax, the Spring Festival, the return in oil prices, and the fall in lithium carbonate formed a double recovery on the demand side and the cost side. The weakening of inventory and the restoration of the new car supply cycle provided support from the supply side. The direction of the car market bottoming out and recovering is quite clear.
At the same time, it should also be noted that the 2% domestic retail growth rate is a moderate recovery rather than a strong recovery, and the domestic car market is more likely to be a “weak recovery after bottoming out”. Among them, the weakening of inventory removal means that the growth rate of manufacturers has improved markedly, and the restoration of new car supply in various market segments is a necessary condition for turning suppressed demand into actual transactions — the sustainability of these two points is more worthy of attention than simply poor policies.
The national passenger car industry stocks 3.21 million vehicles at the end of September 2026, with 56 days of inventory
At the end of September 2026, the national passenger car industry had an inventory of 3.21 million units, an increase of 70,000 units over the previous year and a year-on-year decrease of 70,000 units, which is characterized by continued inventory fluctuation in the third quarter. Among them, the manufacturer's inventory accounted for 30%, and the inventory from the manufacturer's vacation in August was made up in September.
The Passenger Link Branch predicts that the team's satisfaction level will continue to plummet to a low level starting in October 2025. The optimism level in September 2026 was 38%, and the satisfaction rate after September in early October was 19%. Expectations are low but satisfaction is not high. Mainly, the impact of high oil prices is too big. The team's optimism about the October market fell to 23%. This is a neutral forecast index for judging market optimism for the past 3 months, but lower than 38% in September.
The total inventory of companies that only produce new energy vehicles rose to 880,000 units in September 2026, an increase of 30,000 units over the previous month, an increase of 100,000 units from the peak inventory of 780,000 units in November 2025, but the same as the 880,000 units in April 2025. Recently, the manufacturer and channel inventories of new energy distributors faced lower than expected retail sales in the market, and the overall pressure on industry inventories was high.