Credit is getting tight around AI infrastructure, funding costs are climbing and investors are starting to question who really carries the risk. That mix can punish crowded trades but also open space for specialists in credit volatility and distressed debt who know how to price stress. This piece walks through three stocks from our screener that appear positively exposed to these cracks and explains what their business models might offer you as conditions evolve.
The three stocks covered below are only a sample, and the full screen surfaced 23 more companies with equally detailed credit stories that are not covered in this article. If you want to identify and analyze the highest conviction plays around AI and tech credit stress, head straight into the Credit-Volatility & Distressed-Debt Beneficiaries in AI and Tech screener.
Ares Management (ARES)
Overview: Ares Management is an alternative asset manager that lends to companies and invests in credit, private equity and real estate worldwide.
Operations: Ares Management generates most of its roughly US$5.8b revenue from its Credit Group at about US$3.6b, with smaller contributions from Real Assets and Secondaries.
Market Cap: US$40.3b
For this screener, Ares Management matters because its credit engines are built to step into stressed financing gaps exactly when traditional lenders pull back.
"High levels of undeployed capital, including about US$170b of dry powder at a time when direct lending spreads, OID and covenants have become more lender friendly, position Ares Management to put more capital to work on attractive terms and translate committed but non fee-paying AUM into higher management fees and net earnings."
What really moves the needle from here is how one quiet shift in borrower demand and deal terms filters through to those fee margins.
That fee sensitivity is only the starting point. The full narrative for Ares Management unpacks how Ares Management could turn stress, fundraising flows and credit cycles into an accelerating earnings mix.
Trinity Capital (TRIN)
Overview: Trinity Capital provides term loans and equipment financing to growth stage businesses, with a particular focus on tech and AI related borrowers.
Operations: Trinity Capital generates all of its roughly US$313 million revenue from venture capital style lending activities within the United States.
Market Cap: US$1.6b
Where many lenders are pulling back from complex AI and data center projects, Trinity Capital is leaning into collateral backed loans and equipment financing that can benefit from wider credit spreads without betting on a single software winner.
"Growth of fee generating managed funds and joint ventures, now at US$400m of AUM and contributing 6% to 8% of quarterly net investment income, points to a rising mix of higher margin, less capital intensive earnings."
What really matters for Trinity Capital now is how one unseen pressure on funding costs shapes the balance between income and payout expectations.
To see how that funding pressure could accelerate or stall Trinity Capital's payout story, read the full narrative for Trinity Capital for the full risk and upside picture.
Blackstone (BX)
Overview: Blackstone is a global alternative asset manager that leans heavily on credit, real estate and special situations to finance complex projects, including AI infrastructure.
Operations: Blackstone generates most of its revenue from Private Equity at about US$6.0b, Real Estate at roughly US$3.9b and Credit & Insurance near US$3.3b.
Market Cap: US$148.0b
Blackstone is in this screener because it is one of the few platforms large enough to structure, fund and trade around stressed AI and data center credit. It can turn tightening bank appetite into deal flow rather than a roadblock.
"Blackstone continues to gather large inflows into its funds, with AUM at US$1.35b and nearly US$70b of quarterly inflows."
What really decides how Blackstone converts that firehose of capital into investor outcomes is how one quiet shift in AI credit risk sharing plays out.
If you want to see how that risk sharing could be accelerating or masking the real opportunity, read the full narrative for Blackstone for the full Blackstone story.
Seeking Curiosity Driven Alternatives?
Fresh ideas move first. Breakout stories gain momentum while they are still under the radar for now. Before prices start flying or dropping on headlines, get in early.
- Spot cash generators early and track where resilient balance sheets cluster by running the list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (24 results) while that edge still matters.
- Explore long term income themes and scan for candidates with higher yields using 5 dividend fortresses before the crowd focuses on the same payouts.
- Target the backbone of AI data flows and shortlist infrastructure enablers with the 55 AI infrastructure stocks while valuations continue to reflect earlier assumptions.
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