Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
L3Harris reports before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the first reaction session and Day +1 reflects follow-through trading.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | -$7.67 (-2.51%) | $13.33 (4.37%) | -$25.63 (-8.61%) | $19.32 (6.49%) |
| 2026-04-30 | -$0.85 (-0.26%) | $12.47 (3.88%) | -$7.18 (-2.24%) | $10.14 (3.16%) |
| 2026-01-29 | -$4.28 (-1.19%) | $17.59 (4.88%) | -$13.17 (-3.70%) | $13.60 (3.82%) |
| 2025-10-30 | +$9.03 (+3.15%) | $22.77 (7.94%) | -$6.80 (-2.30%) | $6.81 (2.30%) |
| 2025-07-24 | +$3.62 (+1.34%) | $7.31 (2.71%) | -$3.94 (-1.44%) | $8.71 (3.19%) |
| 2025-04-24 | -$0.04 (-0.02%) | $11.35 (5.25%) | -$0.19 (-0.09%) | $3.80 (1.75%) |
| 2025-01-30 | +$0.11 (+0.05%) | $7.23 (3.41%) | -$0.05 (-0.02%) | $4.37 (2.06%) |
| 2024-10-24 | -$1.65 (-0.67%) | $3.09 (1.26%) | +$8.64 (+3.54%) | $6.89 (2.82%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 1.15% | 4.21% | 2.74% | 3.20% |
Historical price behavior shows moderate volatility around earnings releases, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 1.15% and Day +1 move of 2.74%. The most significant reaction occurred following the July 2026 report, when the stock declined 8.61% on Day +1 despite beating estimates by 11.79%—suggesting investors may have been disappointed by guidance or forward commentary rather than the quarter itself.
The pattern reveals that initial Day 0 reactions tend to be relatively contained (average range of 4.21%), but Day +1 often brings larger moves (average 2.74% absolute move) as the market digests the full implications of results and guidance. The October 2025 report provides a notable example: the stock gained 3.15% on Day 0 but reversed to decline 2.30% on Day +1. Recent quarters show increasing Day +1 volatility, with ranges expanding to 6.49% in July 2026 compared to more modest 2-3% ranges in earlier periods, suggesting heightened sensitivity to execution and outlook commentary.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 10/30/26 (DTE 2) |
| Expected Move | $9.51 (3.65%) |
| Expected Range | $251.10 to $270.12 |
| Implied Volatility | 72.33% |
The options market is pricing an expected move of ±3.65% by October 30, which sits between the historical Day 0 average of 1.15% and the Day +1 average of 2.74%. This suggests options traders are anticipating a reaction somewhat larger than the typical initial move but in line with the combined two-day volatility pattern, reflecting uncertainty around whether recent price target cuts signal deeper execution concerns.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain a Strong Buy consensus on L3Harris with an average rating of 4.27 out of 5.0, based on 22 analysts. The breakdown shows 14 Strong Buy ratings, 0 Moderate Buy ratings, 8 Hold ratings, and no Sell ratings—reflecting broad bullish conviction despite recent stock weakness.
The average price target stands at $332.35, implying 27.5% upside from the current price of $260.61. Price targets range from a low of $241.00 to a high of $443.00, with the wide range reflecting differing views on the company's ability to execute on its defense modernization opportunity. The mean target has declined from recent highs as firms recalibrated expectations in October.
Sentiment has improved over the past month, with Strong Buy ratings increasing from 13 to 14 and the average recommendation ticking up from 4.24 to 4.27. This modest improvement suggests analysts view recent weakness as a buying opportunity rather than a fundamental deterioration, particularly given the company's consistent earnings beats and strong positioning in high-priority defense programs. The lack of any Sell ratings underscores the view that L3Harris remains well-positioned in the defense spending cycle despite near-term execution questions.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion rates L3Harris as a 56% Sell, showing notable improvement from 80% Sell last week and 100% Sell last month. This strengthening signal reflects the stock's recent recovery from oversold conditions, though the overall reading remains cautious heading into earnings.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal indicates near-term momentum remains tentative despite recent gains
- Medium-term (50% Sell): Neutral-to-negative reading suggests consolidation in the intermediate timeframe as the stock works through resistance
- Long-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal reflects significant weakness in the longer-term trend, with the stock well below key moving averages
Trend Characteristics: The signal strength is rated as Average with direction characterized as Weakest, indicating the stock is in a transitional phase where recent improvement has not yet established a convincing reversal of the longer-term downtrend.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $257.69 | 50-Day MA | $249.64 |
| 10-Day MA | $251.76 | 100-Day MA | $270.90 |
| 20-Day MA | $244.27 | 200-Day MA | $305.42 |
The stock is trading at $260.61, positioned above its 5-day ($257.69), 10-day ($251.76), 20-day ($244.27), and 50-day ($249.64) moving averages, but remains below its 100-day ($270.90) and 200-day ($305.42) moving averages. This configuration shows short-term momentum has turned positive, but the stock faces significant overhead resistance from longer-term trend lines. The 100-day moving average at $270.90 represents the first major technical hurdle, while the 200-day at $305.42 marks the level needed to confirm a full trend reversal. The technical setup is cautiously supportive for earnings—recent strength has improved the near-term picture, but the stock remains in a longer-term downtrend that will require strong results and guidance to break decisively higher.