Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Ingram Micro reports after market close, meaning Day 0 reflects anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 captures the market's first full reaction to the actual earnings data.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | +$0.27 (+0.90%) | $0.82 (2.72%) | -$2.19 (-7.20%) | $2.48 (8.16%) |
| 2026-04-30 | +$0.47 (+1.55%) | $1.30 (4.31%) | -$2.86 (-9.29%) | $2.03 (6.60%) |
| 2026-03-02 | +$0.66 (+3.19%) | $1.21 (5.85%) | +$3.06 (+14.33%) | $2.25 (10.54%) |
| 2025-10-30 | +$0.08 (+0.36%) | $0.34 (1.57%) | +$0.90 (+4.08%) | $1.16 (5.28%) |
| 2025-08-06 | -$0.35 (-1.82%) | $0.80 (4.13%) | -$0.02 (-0.11%) | $1.39 (7.36%) |
| 2025-05-08 | +$0.67 (+3.52%) | $0.90 (4.76%) | -$0.47 (-2.39%) | $1.46 (7.44%) |
| 2025-03-04 | +$0.24 (+1.16%) | $1.40 (6.74%) | -$1.16 (-5.53%) | $1.38 (6.58%) |
| 2024-11-12 | -$0.52 (-2.11%) | $1.02 (4.12%) | -$0.09 (-0.37%) | $0.93 (3.84%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 1.83% | 4.28% | 5.41% | 6.98% |
Historical price behavior reveals significant volatility around Ingram Micro's earnings releases, with an average absolute Day +1 move of 5.41% and an average Day +1 range of 6.98%. The most dramatic reactions occurred in Q1 2026 (March 2nd report), when the stock surged 14.33% the day after earnings, and in Q2 2026 (April 30th report), when shares fell 9.29% the following session.
The pattern shows asymmetric risk, with post-earnings moves skewing negative in recent quarters despite consistent earnings beats. The last two reports (April and July 2026) both saw Day +1 declines of 9.29% and 7.20% respectively, suggesting that even when the company beats estimates, guidance or forward commentary may be disappointing investors. Day 0 moves have been more muted, averaging 1.83%, indicating limited anticipatory positioning ahead of results.
Investors should prepare for material price movement following this release, with historical data suggesting a typical range of 5-7% is likely, and moves exceeding 10% not uncommon. The recent pattern of negative Day +1 reactions despite beats suggests the market is focused on forward guidance and margin sustainability rather than backward-looking results.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 11/20/26 (DTE 23) |
| Expected Move | $0.68 (2.39%) |
| Expected Range | $27.72 to $29.08 |
| Implied Volatility | 54.36% |
The options market is pricing an expected move of 2.39% (±$0.68) for the November 20th expiration, which is substantially below the stock's average historical earnings move of 5.41%. This suggests options traders are either anticipating a more subdued reaction than history would indicate, or the 23-day window to expiration is dampening the implied volatility. Given that recent earnings have triggered moves of 7.20% and 9.29%, the options market may be underpricing potential post-earnings volatility.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain a Hold-weighted consensus on Ingram Micro, with an average rating of 3.80 out of 5.00. The breakdown shows 5 Strong Buy ratings, 2 Moderate Buy ratings, and 8 Hold ratings, with no Sell or Strong Sell recommendations among the 15 analysts covering the stock. This distribution reflects cautious optimism—while nearly half the Street sees upside potential, the majority prefer to wait for more evidence of sustainable margin expansion and cloud momentum.
The average price target of $32.83 implies 15.6% upside from the current price of $28.40, with estimates ranging from a low of $30.00 to a high of $37.00. The wide range between the low and high targets (23% spread) indicates meaningful disagreement about the company's valuation, likely reflecting differing views on how quickly Ingram Micro can transition from a traditional hardware distributor to a higher-margin cloud and services provider.
Analyst sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, with rating counts holding steady at 5 Strong Buys, 2 Moderate Buys, and 8 Holds. However, the consensus EPS estimate has been gradually revised upward, with four analysts raising their Q3 estimates over the past 90 days, lifting the consensus from $0.74 to $0.78. This modest positive revision activity suggests analysts are gaining confidence in near-term execution, even as they maintain a wait-and-see stance on longer-term ratings. The stability in the rating distribution combined with rising earnings estimates indicates the Street is giving management credit for operational improvements while remaining cautious about assigning a premium valuation until the business model transformation is further along.
Part 4: Technical Picture
Ingram Micro enters earnings with improving technical momentum, as the Barchart Technical Opinion has strengthened from a Sell signal (8% reading) one month ago to Hold (0% reading) one week ago, and now stands at Buy with a 56% reading. This rapid improvement in the technical signal suggests growing bullish conviction heading into the report.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal indicates near-term momentum is positive but not overwhelming, suggesting some caution remains in the immediate trading environment
- Medium-term (Hold): Neutral reading suggests the intermediate-term trend is in consolidation mode, with the stock working through resistance levels
- Long-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal reflects solid underlying strength in the longer-term trend, indicating the broader trajectory remains constructive
Trend Characteristics: The combination of Weak strength and Average direction suggests the uptrend is intact but lacks the conviction of a powerful breakout, indicating the stock may be vulnerable to volatility around the earnings event.
The stock is trading at $28.40, positioned above all key moving averages: the 5-day ($28.07), 10-day ($27.54), 20-day ($27.67), 50-day ($27.53), 100-day ($28.03), and 200-day ($26.33). This alignment with the stock above all major moving averages is technically constructive and suggests the path of least resistance is higher, though the proximity to the 100-day average ($28.03) means a disappointing report could quickly reverse this positioning.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $28.07 | 50-Day MA | $27.53 |
| 10-Day MA | $27.54 | 100-Day MA | $28.03 |
| 20-Day MA | $27.67 | 200-Day MA | $26.33 |
The technical setup is cautiously supportive heading into earnings, with the stock holding above all major moving averages and the Barchart Opinion improving to a 56% Buy signal. However, the Weak trend strength and the stock's position just above the 100-day moving average at $28.03 suggest limited cushion if results or guidance disappoint. The 200-day moving average at $26.33 would represent the first major support level in a sell-off scenario, implying roughly 7% downside risk. Conversely, a strong report could propel shares toward the $30.00-$32.83 analyst target range, representing 6-16% upside potential. The technical picture suggests the stock is coiled for a meaningful move in either direction, consistent with the historical pattern of 5-7% post-earnings swings.