Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
ING typically reports earnings before the market opens, meaning Day 0 represents the first full trading session where investors react to results, while Day +1 captures follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | +$2.43 (+7.47%) | $0.52 (1.60%) | -$0.01 (-0.03%) | $0.52 (1.50%) |
| 2026-04-30 | +$1.28 (+4.63%) | $0.76 (2.75%) | -$0.38 (-1.31%) | $0.42 (1.45%) |
| 2026-01-29 | +$0.18 (+0.61%) | $0.67 (2.26%) | -$0.47 (-1.57%) | $0.66 (2.23%) |
| 2025-10-30 | +$1.30 (+5.38%) | $0.32 (1.34%) | -$0.54 (-2.12%) | $0.34 (1.33%) |
| 2025-07-31 | -$0.05 (-0.21%) | $0.21 (0.92%) | -$0.65 (-2.78%) | $0.39 (1.67%) |
| 2025-05-02 | +$1.35 (+7.00%) | $0.21 (1.11%) | -$0.13 (-0.63%) | $0.21 (1.02%) |
| 2025-02-06 | -$0.16 (-0.96%) | $0.30 (1.77%) | -$0.05 (-0.30%) | $0.21 (1.28%) |
| 2024-10-31 | +$0.16 (+0.95%) | $0.39 (2.32%) | +$0.01 (+0.06%) | $0.21 (1.27%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 3.40% | 1.76% | 1.10% | 1.47% |
ING's stock has exhibited significant volatility around earnings releases, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 3.40% and Day +1 move of 1.10%. The most recent earnings report on July 30, 2026 produced the largest reaction in the dataset, with a +7.47% surge on Day 0, followed by a modest -0.03% pullback on Day +1. This dramatic move reflected strong results and positive guidance that exceeded market expectations.
Looking at the broader pattern, Day 0 moves have been predominantly positive over the past year, with five of the last eight reports producing gains. The April 2026 and May 2025 reports also generated strong positive reactions of +4.63% and +7.00% respectively. However, investors should note that Day +1 has frequently seen modest reversals, with an average move of just 1.10%, suggesting initial enthusiasm often moderates in the following session. The intraday trading ranges have averaged 1.76% on Day 0 and 1.47% on Day +1, indicating sustained volatility across both sessions as the market digests results and guidance.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain a bullish stance on ING heading into earnings, with a consensus rating of 4.20 out of 5.00, firmly in Buy territory. The analyst community consists of 8 Strong Buys, 2 Moderate Buys, and 5 Holds, with no Sell or Strong Sell ratings among the 15 analysts covering the stock. This positive sentiment reflects confidence in ING's ability to capitalize on the higher rate environment and execute on its digital transformation strategy.
The average price target of $32.50 implies modest upside of approximately -1.2% from the current price of $32.89, though the high target of $35.00 suggests some analysts see potential for +6.4% gains. The low target of $30.00 represents -8.8% downside risk. Notably, analyst sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, with rating counts and the average recommendation holding steady at 4.20. This stability suggests analysts are comfortable with their current views heading into the Q3 report and are waiting for results before making significant revisions to their outlook.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion currently shows a Buy signal at 8%, representing a significant deterioration from 24% Buy one week ago and 80% Buy one month ago. This sharp decline in technical momentum suggests the stock has lost considerable strength heading into the earnings release, potentially reflecting profit-taking after the strong run to near 52-week highs or growing caution about the upcoming results.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal indicates near-term momentum has turned negative, suggesting recent price action has been weak
- Medium-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal suggests the intermediate-term trend remains constructive despite short-term weakness
- Long-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal reflects a positive longer-term trend structure that supports the overall uptrend
The trend is characterized as Weak in strength with the Weakest directional momentum, indicating the stock is experiencing deteriorating technical conditions as it approaches earnings.
The moving average structure presents a mixed picture. ING is trading above its 5-day ($32.41), 10-day ($32.80), and 200-day ($31.25) moving averages, but has fallen below its 20-day ($33.39), 50-day ($35.01), and 100-day ($33.90) moving averages. This configuration suggests the stock has pulled back from recent highs and is now testing support levels.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $32.41 | 50-Day MA | $35.01 |
| 10-Day MA | $32.80 | 100-Day MA | $33.90 |
| 20-Day MA | $33.39 | 200-Day MA | $31.25 |
The stock's position below its 50-day moving average at $35.01—which represents a key intermediate-term trend indicator—is particularly notable given that ING reached a 52-week high of $37.52 earlier this year. The current price of $32.89 sits roughly in the middle of the 52-week range ($24.03-$37.52), suggesting neither extreme bullishness nor bearishness from a longer-term perspective. However, the deteriorating short-term technical picture, combined with the stock trading below multiple key moving averages, creates a somewhat cautionary setup heading into earnings. Investors should be aware that the weakening momentum could amplify downside volatility if results disappoint, though the stock's position above the 200-day moving average provides a longer-term support level. The technical setup suggests the market may be adopting a "show me" stance, requiring strong results and guidance to reignite the bullish momentum that characterized much of the past month.