The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the pace of short-term pallet releases compounded the rise in ship attacks, which disrupted freight rates. The number of ships attacked in the Middle East in October 2026 exceeded September, and VLCC one-year rental rates remained stable, but the correction in spot freight rates last week raised market concerns. The spiraling demand for effective capacity and the increase in shipments from the Middle East continue to squeeze the transportation side. With the subsequent centralized release of pallets during the peak season, VLCC freight rates are expected to rise again. After non-compliant ships are converted to compliant ships, they still face multiple thresholds such as classification society certification and insurance acquisition. The combined age of ships is generally too high, and the impact on effective capacity is less than 20 ships. This round of rising freight rates is due to strong upstream export demand and continued pressure on crude oil transportation due to continued consumption of downstream inventories. The level of tight supply and demand for oil transportation is expected to be difficult to ease in the context of continued geographical tension. At the same time, the continuous consumption of downstream inventories accumulates demand for replenishment, and the tighter supply of refined oil products is expected to maintain a high level of cracking price differences. It is recommended to focus on misinformation to bring layout opportunities.

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