As you might know, Aegis Logistics Limited (NSE:AEGISLOG) last week released its latest second-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of ₹22b missed by 18%, and statutory earnings per share of ₹7.42 fell short of forecasts by 44%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Aegis Logistics after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Aegis Logistics' five analysts is for revenues of ₹91.5b in 2027. This would reflect a credible 2.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 6.5% to ₹40.41. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹106.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹41.36 in 2027. It looks like sentiment has fallen somewhat in the aftermath of these results, with a real cut to revenue estimates and a small dip in earnings per share numbers as well.
Check out our latest analysis for Aegis Logistics
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹1,427 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aegis Logistics at ₹1,620 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹988. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Aegis Logistics shareholders.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Aegis Logistics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 8.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 38 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Aegis Logistics' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Aegis Logistics going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Aegis Logistics that we have uncovered.
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