According to Woofun AI, the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) kept the current benchmark interest rate unchanged. This macroeconomic policy setting directly reduced market uncertainty, compounded the strong performance of the semiconductor sector and the continued inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds, which together pushed the Bitcoin price back to around $81,000.
According to specific transaction data, as of 8:04 a.m. on the 29th, the transaction price of BTC on the Korean digital asset trading platform Upbit was 1,884 million won, up 0.96% from the price at 9 a.m. the previous day. On the global trading platform Binance, the price of BTC is up 0.40% from 24 hours ago and is now $81,260. At the same time, the price of ETH rose 0.23% to $2358.54; the price of XRP fell 0.31% to $1.3.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, approximately $57.53 million worth of Bitcoin positions were closed in the past 24 hours, of which $14.22 million was a long position, accounting for about 24.7%, while $43.31 million was a short position, accounting for 75.3%. In the entire digital asset market, a total of approximately $258.57 million of positions were closed. This price recovery was largely due to a recovery in technology stock investment sentiment, led by the semiconductor sector — Korea's KOSPI index rose sharply by 6.6% the day before, while SK Hynix rose nearly 11% due to the announcement of a seven-fold increase in profit.
US NASDAQ 100 futures also rose 0.5% at the time, indicating that the strong performance of the Korean semiconductor sector is spreading to global technology stocks. The inflow of capital entering the market through Bitcoin spot ETFs also played a positive role in price recovery: on the 27th, the US Bitcoin spot ETF once again ushered in a net inflow of capital, amounting to 176 million US dollars. There has been an inflow of capital for two consecutive days. Even as the price of Bitcoin recently fell below $80,000 and there was an adjustment, the demand for investment through ETFs continued.
In the derivatives market, although trading volume has increased, new leveraged investments have not expanded significantly. The 24-hour trading volume of digital asset futures increased 7.5% to $163.2 billion, while the number of open contracts increased by only 1.3%. An open position contract refers to the size of a futures contract that has not yet been closed. Its growth rate is lower than the transaction amount, which indicates that the number of new positions opened is relatively limited. BTC and ETH also showed a similar trend: while the price of BTC rose by 2.3%, the number of open contracts fell by 0.1%; although the price of ETH increased by 2.7%, the increase in open contracts was only 1.7%, which indicates that even with the price increase, leveraged investment has not seen a sharp increase.
In the options market, investors' concerns about short-term downside risks have abated. On the digital asset options trading platform Deribit, the 'bias' indicator reflecting the price difference between put options and call options in the BTC1 cycle fell below 1% from about 10% a week ago. Put options are a tool used to prevent falling prices. A decrease in bias means that people are less in demand to prevent falling.
However, in the medium to long term, the market remains cautious. Among 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month options, investors are still more likely to buy put options. Among them, BTC put options with an expiration date of 30 days and an execution price of $65,000 were most actively traded within the last 24 hours.
Although market expectations for a short-term rebound have increased, many investors are still considering the possibility of a further decline.
The main factors affecting the price of BTC in the future will be the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the market trend of technology stocks. The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.75% to 4.00% at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regular meeting held on the 28th (local time), but the possibility of further rate hikes was not ruled out. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh emphasized the strong growth momentum of the US economy and continued inflationary pressure at the press conference. Since the US GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate for the first half of this year has been raised to 2.4%, and the growth rate for the third quarter is expected to exceed 3%, the Federal Reserve is in a position to focus on controlling inflation. The market generally believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates again in December.
Oscar Munoz, head of US macro strategy at TD Securities (TD.US), said, “We still think the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December,” and “if there are no plans to raise interest rates further, then there must be quite a good reason.” As for the technology stock market, there is still uncertainty about whether its upward trend will continue. The results announced by Google's parent company Alphabet (GOOGL.US) fell short of market expectations. Its stock price fell sharply in after-hours trading, while Microsoft (MSFT.US) achieved a rise with good performance in the cloud computing business. Although BTC rebounded thanks to the strong performance of the semiconductor sector and the inflow of ETF funds, to maintain this upward trend, support from the external environment is needed. The market believes that whether US tech stocks can continue their recent upward trend and whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further will affect the future price trend of BTC.